Will the Winter Olympics go extinct?

Quick Overview

The Winter Olympics will likely continue to be held in the future, but climate change is rapidly shrinking the number of reliably climatically suitable locations, with the medium emissions scenario projecting only 16 reliable locations remaining by 2080, down from 52 in 2050, and the high emissions scenario dropping that number to just 8 reliable locations by 2080.

Key Points: Under the medium emissions scenario (RCP4.5, SSP2-45), the number of climate-reliable locations for the Winter Olympics is projected to drop from 52 in 2050 to 46 in the 2080s. Under the high emissions scenario (+4.3°C by 2080), only 8 locations remain reliably climatically suitable for hosting the Winter Olympics by 2080, down from 30 in 2018. The primary climatic indicators used to assess reliability are the probability of minimum daily temperatures staying at or below 0°C and the probability of maintaining a minimum snow depth of 30cm with advanced snowmaking capacity. Past Winter Games have shown increasing reliance on manufactured snow, with the 2022 Beijing Olympics using 98% artificial snow. The 1956 Cortina Winter Games had ideal conditions, but recent games like Turin 2006 experienced temperatures near 10°C, and Vancouver 2010 required helicopters to replace melted snow. Artificial snow, while necessary, is increasingly icy, less safe, and requires significant water resources, which can lead to water scarcity concerns, especially in dry regions like Beijing. The study suggests moving the Paralympic Winter Games from March to February could slightly improve climatic suitability for some locations, but the overall trend remains negative.

Context: This video examines the future viability of hosting the Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games in the context of accelerating global warming, utilizing research from Scott et al. (2018, 2022) and data from the UNEP Emissions Gap Report (2025). It contrasts historical hosting locations with future climate projections under different emissions scenarios to determine which cities will remain climatically reliable for snow sports events.