# Will the Winter Olympics go extinct? Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yL2cTjKZ4O8 Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/yL2cTjKZ4O8 Generated: 2026-02-06T13:33:59.28+00:00 --- ## Quick Overview The Winter Olympics will likely continue to be held in the future, but climate change is rapidly shrinking the number of reliably climatically suitable locations, with the medium emissions scenario projecting only 16 reliable locations remaining by 2080, down from 52 in 2050, and the high emissions scenario dropping that number to just 8 reliable locations by 2080. **Key Points:** - Under the medium emissions scenario (RCP4.5, SSP2-45), the number of climate-reliable locations for the Winter Olympics is projected to drop from 52 in 2050 to 46 in the 2080s. - Under the high emissions scenario (+4.3°C by 2080), only 8 locations remain reliably climatically suitable for hosting the Winter Olympics by 2080, down from 30 in 2018. - The primary climatic indicators used to assess reliability are the probability of minimum daily temperatures staying at or below 0°C and the probability of maintaining a minimum snow depth of 30cm with advanced snowmaking capacity. - Past Winter Games have shown increasing reliance on manufactured snow, with the 2022 Beijing Olympics using 98% artificial snow. - The 1956 Cortina Winter Games had ideal conditions, but recent games like Turin 2006 experienced temperatures near 10°C, and Vancouver 2010 required helicopters to replace melted snow. - Artificial snow, while necessary, is increasingly icy, less safe, and requires significant water resources, which can lead to water scarcity concerns, especially in dry regions like Beijing. - The study suggests moving the Paralympic Winter Games from March to February could slightly improve climatic suitability for some locations, but the overall trend remains negative. ![Screenshot at 02:15: The map illustrates the climate suitability of past Winter Olympic hosts, showing a clear geographical shift toward cooler regions over time, foreshadowing future challenges.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/yL2cTjKZ4O8/00-02-15.jpg) **Context:** This video examines the future viability of hosting the Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games in the context of accelerating global warming, utilizing research from Scott et al. (2018, 2022) and data from the UNEP Emissions Gap Report (2025). It contrasts historical hosting locations with future climate projections under different emissions scenarios to determine which cities will remain climatically reliable for snow sports events. ## Detailed Analysis The future of the Winter Olympics is threatened by climate change, as demonstrated by projections from a study by Scott et al. (2018, 2022). The study analyzed 93 potential host locations based on two key indicators: the probability of minimum daily temperatures staying below 0°C, and the probability of maintaining a minimum 30cm of snow depth using advanced snowmaking. Under the medium emissions scenario (RCP4.5, SSP2-45), 52 locations remain reliable in the 2050s, dropping to 46 in the 2080s. Under the high emissions scenario (+4.3°C by 2080), the situation is dire: only 8 of the 93 locations remain reliable by 2080, compared to 30 in 2018. The Paralympics face even greater risk, with only 22 locations reliable in 2050 under the medium scenario when held in March. The reliance on manufactured snow is already high, exemplified by Beijing 2022 using 98% artificial snow, and past events like Vancouver 2010 required artificial intervention. Athletes rate conditions like injected surfaces and hardpack snow as nearing unacceptable levels of fairness compared to natural snow. Ultimately, while the games will likely continue, the geography of hosting will dramatically shrink, forcing future events further into colder, higher-altitude regions or relying heavily on resource-intensive snowmaking. ### Climate Change Impact on Hosting - Global average surface temperature is projected to rise 1.5°C by 2032 under current trends, reaching 2.7°C by 2080 in the high emissions scenario - Winter sports like skiing and snowboarding are impossible without snow, making them uniquely vulnerable to temperature increases and lack of precipitation. ### Past Challenges - The 1956 Cortina Olympics had great snow, but later games faced issues; Sochi 2014 was the warmest city ever to host, and Vancouver 2010 required helicopters to move snow due to melting. ### Snow Metrics & Athlete Perception - Athletes rate hardpack and injected surfaces (common in artificial snow) as closer to 'unacceptable' (around 2.0 on a 1-5 scale) than ideal conditions - Snowmaking requires significant water; Beijing 2022 used an estimated 49 million gallons of water. ### Future Reliability Projections (Medium Emissions, +1.9°C by 2050) - 52 locations remain reliable for the Olympics (green triangles); 24 are risky (pink triangles); 6 are unreliable (black triangles) - By 2080, under this scenario, only 16 locations remain reliable. ### Future Reliability Projections (High Emissions, +4.3°C by 2080) - Only 8 locations remain reliable (green triangles); 15 are risky (pink triangles); 48 are unreliable (black triangles) - This scenario eliminates many traditional European hosts like Innsbruck, Turin, and Chamonix, and pushes North American hosts like Vancouver and Tahoe into risk categories. ![Screenshot at 00:05: Skiers on a prepared, snow-covered training slope in Cortina, Italy, highlighting the necessity of snow for winter sports.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/yL2cTjKZ4O8/00-00-05.jpg) ![Screenshot at 00:10: Hurdles runners competing in heavy rain during the Summer Olympics, illustrating that weather variability affects both Summer and Winter Games.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/yL2cTjKZ4O8/00-00-10.jpg) ![Screenshot at 00:59: A graph showing the steady increase in global yearly surface temperature anomalies since the mid-20th century, underpinning the context of climate change.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/yL2cTjKZ4O8/00-00-59.jpg) ![Screenshot at 02:15: A map showing the drastic reduction in climatically reliable locations for hosting Winter Games in the Alps region under a medium emissions scenario by 2050.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/yL2cTjKZ4O8/00-02-15.jpg) ![Screenshot at 04:44: The Beijing 2022 ski jump venue surrounded by massive cooling towers, symbolizing the extensive artificial snow reliance in warmer climates.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/yL2cTjKZ4O8/00-04-44.jpg)