Towards A New Nuclear Arms Race? - The end of the last USA-Russia Nuclear Arms Limits

Quick Overview

The New START treaty, the last major legal constraint on the maximum size of US and Russian nuclear arsenals, formally expired in February 2026 without a replacement, placing the world in a situation without legal nuclear limits for the first time since the early 1970s, though Russia informally suggests adhering to warhead limits if the US does.

Key Points: The New START treaty ceased to exist in February 2026, leaving no legal constraints on the maximum size of US and Russian nuclear arsenals for the first time since the early 1970s. Russia suspended its participation in New START in February 2023, closing out verification mechanisms like information disclosure and on-site inspections, reducing the arrangement to a 'trust me bro situation.' The US insisted that any post-New START agreement must be multilateral, including the People's Republic of China, a proposal Beijing has rejected, preferring the US and Russia maintain stability. In a 'no deal' scenario, the US could quickly triple the nuclear firepower of its 400 Minute Man 3 ICBMs from one warhead to three, as they are capable of mounting up to three warheads each. China's nuclear arsenal is assessed to be growing rapidly, likely adding about 100 warheads per year since 2023, putting it in a 'B-tier' position relative to the US and Russia. Treaty collapse incentivizes nations to expand their nuclear weapons industrial base to hedge against uncertainty, as long lead times necessitate building capacity for potentially larger future forces, risking an arms race spiral. The INF treaty, signed in 1987 to ban ground-launched missiles between 500 and 5,500 km, died after the US alleged Russian cheating with the 9M729 missile, which Ukrainians claim has been used in the current war traveling much further than 500 km.

Context: The video analyzes the collapse of the bilateral US-Russia nuclear arms control system, highlighted by the expiry of the New START treaty in 2026, which built upon decades of Cold War agreements designed to manage the massive arsenals that peaked near 70,000 warheads in the 1980s. The analysis traces the hollowing out of previous treaties like the INF and ABM treaties and examines the current geopolitical landscape, including China's growing arsenal and new weapon technologies, setting the stage for potential scenarios following the lapse of verifiable limits.