# Towards A New Nuclear Arms Race? - The end of the last USA-Russia Nuclear Arms Limits Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6WvdGnR-nc Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/p6WvdGnR-nc Generated: 2026-02-22T14:37:26.266+00:00 --- ## Quick Overview The New START treaty, the last major legal constraint on the maximum size of US and Russian nuclear arsenals, formally expired in February 2026 without a replacement, placing the world in a situation without legal nuclear limits for the first time since the early 1970s, though Russia informally suggests adhering to warhead limits if the US does. **Key Points:** - The New START treaty ceased to exist in February 2026, leaving no legal constraints on the maximum size of US and Russian nuclear arsenals for the first time since the early 1970s. - Russia suspended its participation in New START in February 2023, closing out verification mechanisms like information disclosure and on-site inspections, reducing the arrangement to a 'trust me bro situation.' - The US insisted that any post-New START agreement must be multilateral, including the People's Republic of China, a proposal Beijing has rejected, preferring the US and Russia maintain stability. - In a 'no deal' scenario, the US could quickly triple the nuclear firepower of its 400 Minute Man 3 ICBMs from one warhead to three, as they are capable of mounting up to three warheads each. - China's nuclear arsenal is assessed to be growing rapidly, likely adding about 100 warheads per year since 2023, putting it in a 'B-tier' position relative to the US and Russia. - Treaty collapse incentivizes nations to expand their nuclear weapons industrial base to hedge against uncertainty, as long lead times necessitate building capacity for potentially larger future forces, risking an arms race spiral. - The INF treaty, signed in 1987 to ban ground-launched missiles between 500 and 5,500 km, died after the US alleged Russian cheating with the 9M729 missile, which Ukrainians claim has been used in the current war traveling much further than 500 km. **Context:** The video analyzes the collapse of the bilateral US-Russia nuclear arms control system, highlighted by the expiry of the New START treaty in 2026, which built upon decades of Cold War agreements designed to manage the massive arsenals that peaked near 70,000 warheads in the 1980s. The analysis traces the hollowing out of previous treaties like the INF and ABM treaties and examines the current geopolitical landscape, including China's growing arsenal and new weapon technologies, setting the stage for potential scenarios following the lapse of verifiable limits. ## Detailed Analysis The core issue is the definitive end of the New START treaty in February 2026, meaning there are no international legal constraints on the deployed nuclear arsenals of the US and Russia for the first time since the 1970s. While Russia suspended verification mechanisms in 2023 following the invasion of Ukraine, it has informally indicated it will stick to the 1,550 deployed warhead limit if the US does, largely because the war in Ukraine strains the Russian budget, making a full-scale arms race unaffordable. The loss of verification—inspections and data disclosure—is seen as the most significant practical loss, undermining strategic stability. A 'no deal' scenario allows the US to quickly increase deployed firepower by loading the reserve warheads already available onto existing ICBMs, potentially doubling the firepower of the Minute Man 3 force by moving from one to three warheads per missile. The primary long-term danger of no deal is the incentive to overbuild the nuclear industrial base due to uncertainty regarding future force requirements, potentially triggering an arms race spiral. Negotiations for a replacement stalled primarily because the US demanded a multilateral treaty including China, which Beijing refused, maintaining the historical bilateral framework was for the two largest powers. Furthermore, New START ignored non-strategic nuclear weapons, such as the B-61 gravity bombs and novel systems like nuclear-armed hypersonic glide vehicles and the Russian Poseidon drone, which are now increasingly relevant in the diverse, multi-polar nuclear world. ### Collapse of the Treaty System - New START expired without replacement in February 2026, ending legal constraints on US/Russia arsenals first seen in the early 1970s - Russia suspended verification in 2023 following the Ukraine invasion but claims to adhere to warhead limits as an act of goodwill. ### Arms Control Mechanisms Reviewed - Treaties utilized banning (like biological weapons) or limiting quantities/usage, supported by monitoring; the INF treaty banned ground-launched missiles between 500-5,500 km, which the US alleged Russia violated with the 9M729 missile. ### The Non-Proliferation Framework - The NPT divides states into nuclear haves (US, Russia, China, UK, France) and have-nots; proliferation challenges exist from non-signatories like India, Israel, Pakistan, and North Korea. ### New START Specifics - Capped deployed ICBMs, SLBMs, or heavy bombers at 700, and deployed warheads at 1,550; its most significant loss was the verification regime including data sharing and 18 on-site inspections annually. ### Post-Lapse Scenarios - Option one is kicking the can down the road with informal extensions; option two is 'no deal,' allowing immediate deployment of reserve warheads (US could triple firepower on Minute Man 3s); option three involves a new multilateral agreement, which is complicated by China's refusal to join. ### Emerging Proliferation Pressures - China's arsenal is growing rapidly, adding an estimated 100 warheads annually since 2023; European non-nuclear states like Germany and Poland consider shoring up deterrents beyond the US umbrella, potentially leading to French/UK cooperation expansion. ### Technological Blind Spots - New START did not regulate tactical/non-strategic weapons like the B-61 gravity bombs or novel systems such as nuclear-armed hypersonic glide vehicles and the Russian Poseidon autonomous underwater vehicle.