Alternative U.S. Grand Strategies: Past, Present, Future | Hoover Institution

Quick Overview

Ambassador Robert Blackwill advocates for a sixth alternative grand strategy for the US called "resolute global leadership," which seeks to revitalize a rule-based world order through sustained American leadership, substantial defense budget increases, and intense diplomacy to counter China's hegemonic objectives, arguing that the current liberal internationalism has weakened and Trumpism undermines prosperity, security, and legitimacy.

Key Points: Blackwill profoundly disagrees with the assertion that the liberal internationalist approach to world order, pursued since WWII until Donald Trump, is dead. He defines vital US national interests across five areas, including preventing nuclear proliferation, warding off catastrophic attacks, maintaining regional power balances via alliances, and ensuring stability of international systems like trade and energy. Blackwill analyzes five alternative grand strategies—Primacy, Liberal Internationalism, Restraint, American Nationalism, and Trumpism—proposing his sixth: Resolute Global Leadership. He asserts that recent liberal internationalism weakened by failing to adequately respond to China's rise, failing to halt China's militarization of the South China Sea, and failing to punish Russian aggression in Crimea. Trumpism is characterized as counterrevolutionary, lacking a shared moral framework, recognizing no international rules, prioritizing bilateral trade deals over geopolitics, and questioning alliances, with Blackwill noting Trump questions core US values. The proposed Resolute Global Leadership strategy includes substantially increasing the defense budget, winning the high-tech race with China, pivoting military forces to Asia, and treating climate change as a profound global threat. Blackwill believes trust with allies will not be rebuilt during a second Trump term, stating, "I do not think that trust will be rebuilt during President Trump's second term."

Context: The conversation features Ambassador Robert Blackwill presenting his Council on Foreign Relations sponsored report, "America Revived, a grand strategy of resolute global leadership," during a Hoover Institution event moderated by Condoleezza Rice and involving Admiral Jim Ellis and Philip Zelico. Blackwill, who previously served as the senior director for the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe during the end of the Cold War, frames the discussion by first defining world order and identifying the five bipartisan consensus vital US national interests that a grand strategy must protect, setting the stage for analyzing existing and proposing a new framework for American global engagement.