# Alternative U.S. Grand Strategies: Past, Present, Future | Hoover Institution Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5IJbnrxQ1o Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/e5IJbnrxQ1o Generated: 2026-02-14T08:32:16.929+00:00 --- ## Quick Overview Ambassador Robert Blackwill advocates for a sixth alternative grand strategy for the US called "resolute global leadership," which seeks to revitalize a rule-based world order through sustained American leadership, substantial defense budget increases, and intense diplomacy to counter China's hegemonic objectives, arguing that the current liberal internationalism has weakened and Trumpism undermines prosperity, security, and legitimacy. **Key Points:** - Blackwill profoundly disagrees with the assertion that the liberal internationalist approach to world order, pursued since WWII until Donald Trump, is dead. - He defines vital US national interests across five areas, including preventing nuclear proliferation, warding off catastrophic attacks, maintaining regional power balances via alliances, and ensuring stability of international systems like trade and energy. - Blackwill analyzes five alternative grand strategies—Primacy, Liberal Internationalism, Restraint, American Nationalism, and Trumpism—proposing his sixth: Resolute Global Leadership. - He asserts that recent liberal internationalism weakened by failing to adequately respond to China's rise, failing to halt China's militarization of the South China Sea, and failing to punish Russian aggression in Crimea. - Trumpism is characterized as counterrevolutionary, lacking a shared moral framework, recognizing no international rules, prioritizing bilateral trade deals over geopolitics, and questioning alliances, with Blackwill noting Trump questions core US values. - The proposed Resolute Global Leadership strategy includes substantially increasing the defense budget, winning the high-tech race with China, pivoting military forces to Asia, and treating climate change as a profound global threat. - Blackwill believes trust with allies will not be rebuilt during a second Trump term, stating, "I do not think that trust will be rebuilt during President Trump's second term." **Context:** The conversation features Ambassador Robert Blackwill presenting his Council on Foreign Relations sponsored report, "America Revived, a grand strategy of resolute global leadership," during a Hoover Institution event moderated by Condoleezza Rice and involving Admiral Jim Ellis and Philip Zelico. Blackwill, who previously served as the senior director for the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe during the end of the Cold War, frames the discussion by first defining world order and identifying the five bipartisan consensus vital US national interests that a grand strategy must protect, setting the stage for analyzing existing and proposing a new framework for American global engagement. ## Detailed Analysis Ambassador Blackwill argues that the current international system is in transition, refuting claims that the post-WWII liberal international order is irrevocably broken, though he criticizes its recent 'infeebled version' for failing to confront China's rise, stop Russian aggression in Ukraine, and enforce red lines in Syria. He contrasts this with Trumpism, which he sees as radically redefining vital interests, emphasizing bilateral transactional trade, questioning alliances, and operating under a 'law of the jungle' philosophy with no shared moral framework. Blackwill contrasts Trumpism against established schools like Primacy, Restraint, and traditional American Nationalism, which seeks only Western Hemisphere focus, unlike Trumpism's energetic global involvement. His alternative, Resolute Global Leadership, demands preserving the constitutional order, maintaining military superiority via increased defense spending, revitalizing the rule-based order through diplomacy, pivoting forces to Asia to counter China, promoting democracy, and aggressively addressing climate change. Regarding Taiwan, Blackwill states he would recommend going to war to defend it in a crisis, while simultaneously intensifying diplomacy to avoid conflict, explicitly rejecting the end of strategic ambiguity but emphasizing strengthened deterrence. He concludes that rebuilding trust with allies, eroded by Trump's contemptuous view of them, will be a task for the next administration, not the current one. ### Defining Grand Strategy Components - World order is defined as the arrangement of power and authority in the international system, which changes slowly - Vital US national interests are five bipartisan goals established post-WWII, including preventing WMD use and maintaining power balances via alliances - Grand strategy is the collective deployment of diplomatic, economic, military, and ideological means to protect these interests. ### Analysis of Grand Strategy Schools - Primacy seeks unrivaled superpower status to prevent peer competitors - Liberal Internationalism champions a rules-based order using force as a last resort - Restraint advocates slashing global presence - American Nationalism focuses only on the Western Hemisphere - Trumpism is an eccentric, transactional version rejecting rules and alliances. ### Critique of Recent Liberal Internationalism - It failed to adequately respond to Chinese power, failed to halt South China Sea militarization, failed to punish Russian aggression in Crimea, and failed to avoid the Afghanistan withdrawal. ### Pillars of Trumpism - Counterrevolutionary against post-WWII order - Has no shared moral framework, arguing naked power prevails - Concentrates on bilateral trade over geopolitics - Questions alliances and detests Europe, showing respect for Putin and Xi. ### Pillars of Resolute Global Leadership - Preserve the American constitutional order - Maintain military superiority by substantially increasing the defense budget and winning the high-tech race with China - Revitalize the rule-based order via diplomacy - Pivot US military forces to Asia from Europe and the Middle East - Treat climate change as a profound global threat. ### Taiwan Strategy and Deterrence - Blackwill recommends being prepared to 'go to war with China to defend Taiwan' in a crisis, while simultaneously intensifying diplomacy to avoid war - He stresses that assuming Xi Jinping is not serious about using force by 2027 would be 'highly dangerous.' ### Allies and Trust Rebuilding - European allies are not 'free riders' despite underinvesting, and extended deterrence depends on capability and trust - Blackwill states trust will not be rebuilt during a Trump second term, as he knows 'who he is' and 'what he thinks about allies which is contemptuous.'