Why Cuba is Becoming the Next Haiti

Quick Overview

Cuba is experiencing its worst existential crisis, marked by a catastrophic population collapse where up to 2.75 million people have fled since 2020, driven by a severely collapsing economy showing at least 15% decline since 2018, hyperinflation reaching an annualized rate of 68%, and chronic shortages in energy, fuel, and food, all exacerbated by the loss of Venezuelan oil subsidies and renewed US maximum pressure policies under the Trump administration.

Key Points: Nearly 1 in every four Cubans, estimated at 2.75 million people, have left the island since 2020, with the government officially admitting a 14% population decline, second only to war-torn Ukraine. The Cuban economy has declined by at least 15% since 2018, with inflation skyrocketing, pushing the peso from 20:1 to 450:1 against the US dollar by November 2025, implying 68% annualized inflation. An estimated 89% of the Cuban population lives in extreme poverty, 7 out of 10 skip at least one meal daily, and only 3% can find required medicine at pharmacies. Chronic energy shortages result in routine mass blackouts, with electricity flickering off for at least 4 hours a day during the summer, because 83% of power relies on outdated diesel generators and imported oil imports from Venezuela have plummeted from 100,000 barrels per day in 2021 to 16,000 by 2025. The Trump administration, with Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, has re-imposed hardline policies, including re-listing Cuba as a State Sponsor of Terrorism, which cripples its access to international finance, following the ousting of Venezuelan President Maduro. The capitalistic enclave of South Florida, home to roughly 2 million people of Cuban ancestry, now rivals Havana's metropolitan population and serves as the capitalist alternative to the island's communist system. The Communist Party's initial legitimacy stemmed from a popular, homegrown revolution against the corrupt, US-backed Batista regime, which was quickly cemented after the US-sponsored Bay of Pigs invasion failed in 1961.