# Why Cuba is Becoming the Next Haiti Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3C9gxWwzTg Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/c3C9gxWwzTg Generated: 2026-02-20T17:10:29.279+00:00 --- ## Quick Overview Cuba is experiencing its worst existential crisis, marked by a catastrophic population collapse where up to 2.75 million people have fled since 2020, driven by a severely collapsing economy showing at least 15% decline since 2018, hyperinflation reaching an annualized rate of 68%, and chronic shortages in energy, fuel, and food, all exacerbated by the loss of Venezuelan oil subsidies and renewed US maximum pressure policies under the Trump administration. **Key Points:** - Nearly 1 in every four Cubans, estimated at 2.75 million people, have left the island since 2020, with the government officially admitting a 14% population decline, second only to war-torn Ukraine. - The Cuban economy has declined by at least 15% since 2018, with inflation skyrocketing, pushing the peso from 20:1 to 450:1 against the US dollar by November 2025, implying 68% annualized inflation. - An estimated 89% of the Cuban population lives in extreme poverty, 7 out of 10 skip at least one meal daily, and only 3% can find required medicine at pharmacies. - Chronic energy shortages result in routine mass blackouts, with electricity flickering off for at least 4 hours a day during the summer, because 83% of power relies on outdated diesel generators and imported oil imports from Venezuela have plummeted from 100,000 barrels per day in 2021 to 16,000 by 2025. - The Trump administration, with Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, has re-imposed hardline policies, including re-listing Cuba as a State Sponsor of Terrorism, which cripples its access to international finance, following the ousting of Venezuelan President Maduro. - The capitalistic enclave of South Florida, home to roughly 2 million people of Cuban ancestry, now rivals Havana's metropolitan population and serves as the capitalist alternative to the island's communist system. - The Communist Party's initial legitimacy stemmed from a popular, homegrown revolution against the corrupt, US-backed Batista regime, which was quickly cemented after the US-sponsored Bay of Pigs invasion failed in 1961. **Context:** The video analyzes the current dire situation in Cuba, framing it as potentially the worst existential crisis in its history, comparable to Haiti, primarily due to economic collapse and massive emigration. This crisis is set against the backdrop of Cuba's unique status as the last pure Marxist-Leninist state surviving from the Cold War, which has maintained power for 67 years despite US embargoes and internal pressures, contrasting sharply with the hyper-capitalist Cuban exile community established in South Florida. ## Detailed Analysis Cuba is facing an unprecedented population collapse, with independent observers estimating 2.75 million people have left since 2020, resulting in nearly a quarter of the population abandoning the island due to economic devastation characterized by massive inflation, a 15% economic decline since 2018, and widespread poverty where 89% live in extreme poverty. The energy infrastructure is failing as oil imports from Venezuela have drastically reduced, leading to daily, hours-long blackouts across the island. The current crisis is intensified by the return of the Trump administration in 2025, which immediately reinstated Cuba as a State Sponsor of Terrorism, reversing Biden's late attempt to remove it, and continuing maximum pressure policies that severely restrict trade and finance. Historically, the communist regime gained legitimacy through a popular domestic revolution against the corrupt dictator Fulgencio Batista, with US attempts to overthrow Fidel Castro, notably the Bay of Pigs invasion, paradoxically solidifying Castro's power and pushing Cuba towards the Soviet sphere. While the regime achieved initial successes in literacy and healthcare, it has maintained control by nationalizing assets, using migration as a 'blowoff valve' for dissent, and relying on external patrons like the Soviet Union and later Venezuela for subsidized oil, in exchange for doctors and security services. The economic woes are compounded by the internal corruption of the military-controlled conglomerate GAESA, which hoards assets instead of funding essential services. The political dynamic is heavily influenced by the massive, ideologically opposed Cuban exile community in Miami, whose support was decisive in Trump's 2016 and 2024 victories, ensuring the continuation of hardline US policy aimed at regime change. ### Population and Economic Collapse - Nearly 1 in 4 Cubans fled since 2020 - Economy declined 15% since 2018 - 89% live in extreme poverty - Inflation annualized at 68% between 2019 and 2025. ### Infrastructure and Resource Crisis - Mass blackouts are routine due to reliance on old diesel plants - Venezuelan oil imports dropped from 100,000 bpd in 2021 to 16,000 bpd by 2025 - Wages equate to about $14/month, while a carton of eggs costs 43% of that wage. ### US Policy Swing and Political Influence - Trump reversed Obama's normalization, restoring hardline measures and re-listing Cuba as a State Sponsor of Terrorism in 2025 - Cuban-American voters in Florida heavily favored Trump in 2016 and 2024, influencing election outcomes - Marco Rubio, son of exiles, serves as Trump's influential Secretary of State pushing for regime change. ### Historical Context of Revolution - Castro's revolution succeeded in 1959 against the US-backed dictator Batista, who was deeply corrupt and favored US business interests - The failed Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961 accelerated Cuba's shift to Marxist-Leninism and alignment with the USSR. ### The Exile Counterpart - South Florida hosts a Cuban population nearly the size of Havana's, making Miami the capitalist alternative to the island - Miami's GDP is more than double that of the entire island of Cuba, attracting financial relocation as 'Wall Street South'. ### Internal Governance and Survival Tactics - The regime improved literacy to 96% and established universal healthcare, but seized private businesses - Fidel Castro allowed periodic mass exoduses (e.g., Mariel Boatlift) to relieve internal political pressure from dissenters.