America and the World at 250 | Hoover Institution

Quick Overview

Michael Anton, reflecting on his 2016 "Flight 93 election" essay, affirms that Donald Trump's core objectives—securing the border, reasserting political control over immigration, and re-evaluating global trade policies—remain sensible despite his natural pessimism about the overall trajectory of the country, noting that the Biden administration vindicated his thesis on border policy by becoming more radical in enforcement.

Key Points: Anton characterized his 2016 essay, published under the pseudonym Publius Decius Mus, as a direct challenge to conservative intellectuals whose revealed preference showed they were content with the status quo despite publicly stating the republic was dying. The essay argued that a Hillary Clinton presidency was "Russian roulette with a semi-auto," while with Trump, "at least you can spin the cylinder and take your chances." Anton rates the first Trump term as an 'I' (incomplete) because while he saw successes like border crossings being reduced and the Gini coefficient shrinking, he wished for more implementation of his desired agenda. He believes the Biden administration completely vindicated his thesis on border control, implementing policies that were "more radical than any pre" regarding serious border enforcement. Anton argues that the Biden administration continued Trump's trade policy by keeping tariffs, indicating that the trade policy critics assailed was not fundamentally dreadful, and points to global examples like Vietnam as evidence that protectionist policies can lead to economic success. Regarding the 2025 National Security Strategy, which Anton was the lead author on, media coverage focused too much on perceived slights toward Europe, while the most interesting part was the inclusion of the "Trump corollary" regarding Latin America and the Caribbean. Anton asserts that the US commitment to Taiwan, based on the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, is not a formal treaty commitment like NATO, pushing back against the idea that a failure to defend Taiwan would automatically collapse the US alliance structure.