# America and the World at 250 | Hoover Institution Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_OJQ-aDMzRM Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/_OJQ-aDMzRM Generated: 2026-02-18T23:03:29.405+00:00 --- ## Quick Overview Michael Anton, reflecting on his 2016 "Flight 93 election" essay, affirms that Donald Trump's core objectives—securing the border, reasserting political control over immigration, and re-evaluating global trade policies—remain sensible despite his natural pessimism about the overall trajectory of the country, noting that the Biden administration vindicated his thesis on border policy by becoming more radical in enforcement. **Key Points:** - Anton characterized his 2016 essay, published under the pseudonym Publius Decius Mus, as a direct challenge to conservative intellectuals whose revealed preference showed they were content with the status quo despite publicly stating the republic was dying. - The essay argued that a Hillary Clinton presidency was "Russian roulette with a semi-auto," while with Trump, "at least you can spin the cylinder and take your chances." - Anton rates the first Trump term as an 'I' (incomplete) because while he saw successes like border crossings being reduced and the Gini coefficient shrinking, he wished for more implementation of his desired agenda. - He believes the Biden administration completely vindicated his thesis on border control, implementing policies that were "more radical than any pre" regarding serious border enforcement. - Anton argues that the Biden administration continued Trump's trade policy by keeping tariffs, indicating that the trade policy critics assailed was not fundamentally dreadful, and points to global examples like Vietnam as evidence that protectionist policies can lead to economic success. - Regarding the 2025 National Security Strategy, which Anton was the lead author on, media coverage focused too much on perceived slights toward Europe, while the most interesting part was the inclusion of the "Trump corollary" regarding Latin America and the Caribbean. - Anton asserts that the US commitment to Taiwan, based on the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, is not a formal treaty commitment like NATO, pushing back against the idea that a failure to defend Taiwan would automatically collapse the US alliance structure. **Context:** The discussion features Hoover fellow Joseph Letford interviewing Michael Anton, Senior Fellow at the Claremont Institute, regarding the state of America at its 250th anniversary, focusing heavily on Anton's influential 2016 essay, "The Flight 93 Election," and his subsequent service in the Trump administration, including as the 33rd Director of Policy Planning at the State Department where he was the lead author on the 2025 National Security Strategy. ## Detailed Analysis Michael Anton discussed the enduring relevance of his 2016 argument for conservatives to back Donald Trump as a necessary, if risky, course correction against a failing status quo, emphasizing that he remains pessimistic about the country's long-term trajectory but stands by the core goals of Trump's agenda, which include securing the border and rethinking trade. Anton reflected that the Biden administration's actions on the border validated his concerns, as they adopted more radical enforcement measures than previous administrations, while also maintaining Trump-era tariffs. In evaluating Trump's first term, Anton gave an 'incomplete' grade, noting successes in border control and economic metrics like the shrinking Gini coefficient, but regretting incomplete implementation. On foreign policy, Anton criticized the Biden administration's Afghanistan withdrawal execution as haphazard, but acknowledged they correctly continued the shift away from viewing China as a 'responsible stakeholder.' He expressed concern over the Biden administration's "needlessly and foolishly hectoring" approach in the Middle East, contrasting it with the success of the Abraham Accords during the Trump term. Discussing the 2025 National Security Strategy, Anton clarified that he was the initiator of the document, which represents a consensus, and defended the "Trump corollary" regarding Latin America, linking it to Trump's long-standing frustration with drug trafficking in the Western Hemisphere. ### The Flight 93 Election Context - Essay published pseudonymously as Publius Decius Mus due to Anton's government work - The central metaphor urged conservatives to 'charge the cockpit, or you die' against a perceived cliff - Anton targeted intellectual conservatives he felt were cynically comfortable with the status quo. ### Assessment of Trump's First Term - Border crossings were reduced and the Gini coefficient shrank, marking successes - Trade policy was mixed; Trump was sometimes hesitant due to being 'persuaded out of something he wanted to do' - Anton assigned an 'Incomplete' grade because the full agenda was not finished. ### Vindication by the Biden Administration - The border situation under Biden confirmed Anton's thesis as they became 'more radical' on enforcement - The continuation of tariffs suggests the previous trade policy was not deemed dreadful by the new administration. ### Foreign Policy Critique - Biden's Afghanistan withdrawal execution was haphazard, possibly due to bureaucratic resistance to the decision itself - The administration correctly maintained the hard line on China, avoiding a return to the 'responsible stakeholder' narrative. ### The 2025 National Security Strategy - Anton initiated the document, which is a consensus product with many authors, not solely his - Media focus on perceived slights to Europe missed the key element: the 'Trump corollary' concerning Latin America. ### Middle East and Iran Policy - Trump's Middle East policy was arguably successful, leading to the Abraham Accords - Anton suggests the Iranians felt betrayed by the 2025 US strike after negotiations, highlighting the difficulty of negotiating when the Supreme Leader makes final decisions. ### Taiwan Commitment - Anton disputes the notion that the US commitment to Taiwan is a treaty obligation - He argues that because the Taiwan Relations Act is conditional, failure to intervene would not equate to breaking an explicit commitment.