ماذا في الموازنة وهل فعلا بدأ اقتصاد لبنان بالتعافي؟

Quick Overview

The Lebanese economy stabilized following years of collapse, showing a 3.5% growth in 2025 after a major contraction, but this recovery is artificial, supported by Central Bank dollar purchases and the budget ignores structural issues, relying on deferred debt payments and regressive taxation.

Key Points: Economic growth reached 3.5% in 2025, following a previous year marked by war and a 7.5% economic contraction, making the growth rate predictable given the low baseline. The reported $2 billion rise in central bank foreign currency reserves to $12 billion resulted mainly from the central bank intervening by buying dollars with Lira, described as an 'engineered' or 'artificial' rise. Price inflation stood at 14.8% in 2025, which is a significant improvement from 45% the previous year, but still erodes purchasing power considerably. Imports reached $20 billion in 2025, matching 2019 levels, while exports only reached $3.7 billion, resulting in a trade deficit exceeding $16.3 billion, indicating persistent reliance on consumption (nearly 60% of imports are direct consumption goods). The proposed budget shows zero deficit ($5.6 billion in revenues and expenditures) because it completely excludes debt service payments, which is unsustainable and merely postpones major liabilities. The budget's main revenues, 52% of the total, derive from taxes on goods and services (like VAT), making it a regressive budget that does not target specific activities or income. Investment expenditures in the budget account for only 11%, with 48% allocated to salaries/wages (22%) and social benefits (26%), reflecting an administration of the status quo rather than a vision for recovery or infrastructure investment.

Context: The discussion centers on the official narrative of economic improvement in Lebanon during the first year of the current presidential and government terms, specifically analyzing the figures presented by the President and government regarding economic growth and reserve increases. The speaker aims to contextualize these figures against the backdrop of the preceding financial collapse, the ongoing war situation, and the current draft budget being debated in Parliament, emphasizing the need to scrutinize the sustainability and methodology behind the reported economic indicators.