# ماذا في الموازنة وهل فعلا بدأ اقتصاد لبنان بالتعافي؟

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XO5nrJiz5bU
Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/XO5nrJiz5bU
Generated: 2026-01-27T11:10:12.363+00:00

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## Quick Overview

The Lebanese economy stabilized following years of collapse, showing a 3.5% growth in 2025 after a major contraction, but this recovery is artificial, supported by Central Bank dollar purchases and the budget ignores structural issues, relying on deferred debt payments and regressive taxation.

**Key Points:**
- Economic growth reached 3.5% in 2025, following a previous year marked by war and a 7.5% economic contraction, making the growth rate predictable given the low baseline.
- The reported $2 billion rise in central bank foreign currency reserves to $12 billion resulted mainly from the central bank intervening by buying dollars with Lira, described as an 'engineered' or 'artificial' rise.
- Price inflation stood at 14.8% in 2025, which is a significant improvement from 45% the previous year, but still erodes purchasing power considerably.
- Imports reached $20 billion in 2025, matching 2019 levels, while exports only reached $3.7 billion, resulting in a trade deficit exceeding $16.3 billion, indicating persistent reliance on consumption (nearly 60% of imports are direct consumption goods).
- The proposed budget shows zero deficit ($5.6 billion in revenues and expenditures) because it completely excludes debt service payments, which is unsustainable and merely postpones major liabilities.
- The budget's main revenues, 52% of the total, derive from taxes on goods and services (like VAT), making it a regressive budget that does not target specific activities or income.
- Investment expenditures in the budget account for only 11%, with 48% allocated to salaries/wages (22%) and social benefits (26%), reflecting an administration of the status quo rather than a vision for recovery or infrastructure investment.

**Context:** The discussion centers on the official narrative of economic improvement in Lebanon during the first year of the current presidential and government terms, specifically analyzing the figures presented by the President and government regarding economic growth and reserve increases. The speaker aims to contextualize these figures against the backdrop of the preceding financial collapse, the ongoing war situation, and the current draft budget being debated in Parliament, emphasizing the need to scrutinize the sustainability and methodology behind the reported economic indicators.

## Detailed Analysis

The analysis confirms that while official indicators show improvement, like 3.5% growth following a contraction and a reserve increase, these gains are largely artificial or context-dependent; the growth follows a catastrophic year, and reserve increases stem from central bank market intervention rather than free market dynamics. The budget being discussed entirely ignores the structural realities, such as the lack of competitiveness despite wage collapse, the massive trade deficit driven by consumption imports (around 60% of imports), and the necessity for serious investment in productive sectors and infrastructure. Crucially, the budget is presented as balanced ($5.6 billion in revenues/expenditures) only by omitting debt service payments, effectively deferring the national debt crisis. Furthermore, the revenue structure is regressive, relying heavily on VAT and customs duties rather than progressive direct taxation, while capital expenditures are minimal at 11%. The speaker heavily criticizes the budget for lacking any coherent five-year economic, monetary, or fiscal vision required by institutions like the IMF, failing to address public sector reform, competitive strategy, or necessary reconstruction funding, thereby serving only as a stop-gap measure rather than a recovery plan.

### Economic Indicators Contextualized

- 3.5% growth follows a 7.5% contraction in the war year
- Inflation at 14.8% erodes purchasing power
- Reserve increase attributed to Central Bank dollar purchases, not market forces

### Budgetary Flaws and Structure

- Budget shows zero deficit by excluding debt service, postponing major liabilities
- Revenues heavily reliant on regressive consumption taxes (52% from VAT/Goods)
- Only 11% allocated to investment expenditures

### Trade Imbalance Persistence

- Imports at $20 billion match 2019 levels, while exports remain stagnant at $3.7 billion
- Nearly 60% of imports are direct consumption goods, showing no shift to productive economy

### Missing Economic Vision

- Budget lacks alignment with a multi-year economic strategy required by IMF
- No clear policy on monetary control, currency exchange rate, or production competitiveness enhancement

### Public Sector Reform Neglected

- Budget fails to address necessary overhaul of state functions and salary structures needed for the 21st century
- Significant funds are allocated to current wages (22%) and social benefits (26%) without clear health or social policy frameworks