The Election After Gaza

Quick Overview

The Gaza conflict profoundly impacts the upcoming US election, creating significant internal dissent within the Democratic Party, particularly among young, diverse, and Arab/Muslim American voters who feel alienated by President Biden's unconditional support for Israel. This discontent, exemplified by the "uncommitted" campaign, poses a substantial risk to Biden's re-election, as many voters prioritize the humanitarian crisis over traditional party loyalty, despite concerns about a Trump presidency.

Key Points: Between October 7, 2023, and May 1, 2024, Israel killed at least 34,568 Palestinians and injured 77,765, with approximately 14,500 children killed, exceeding child fatalities in all global conflicts over the last four years combined. The US Congress approved an additional $17 billion in aid to Israel, adding to $4 billion already sent, which a speaker calculated as roughly "$85 for every American adult" contributing to the war. The "uncommitted" campaign, particularly in Michigan, mobilized over 101,000 votes, demonstrating widespread discontent beyond Arab and Muslim American communities, encompassing anti-war and pro-peace voters across 73 out of 83 counties. Polling indicates that 80% of Democrats support a permanent ceasefire and 65% support an end to US weapons aid to Israel, suggesting a significant disconnect between the Democratic base and the party's elected officials. Activists like Wi'am Shahed argue that the movement lacks the political power to significantly change US policy in the short term, but express optimism for a major shift within the Democratic Party in the next five to ten years due to youth organizing. Panelists debated the "psychic cost" of voting for Biden, with Leila El-Haddad stating, "it would be very hard for me to make a decision about who I was going to vote for... I don't feel much of a difference" given the current administration's perceived inaction on Palestinian American issues and the ongoing violence. Peter Beinart suggests that while Donald Trump would likely be worse for Palestinian lives due to lack of internal party pressure, a Biden presidency allows for the Democratic Party to continue evolving on the issue, potentially leading to a more favorable political environment in 2028.