# The Election After Gaza Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UpFFcIUeHw4 Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/UpFFcIUeHw4 --- ## Quick Overview The Gaza conflict profoundly impacts the upcoming US election, creating significant internal dissent within the Democratic Party, particularly among young, diverse, and Arab/Muslim American voters who feel alienated by President Biden's unconditional support for Israel. This discontent, exemplified by the "uncommitted" campaign, poses a substantial risk to Biden's re-election, as many voters prioritize the humanitarian crisis over traditional party loyalty, despite concerns about a Trump presidency. **Key Points:** - Between October 7, 2023, and May 1, 2024, Israel killed at least 34,568 Palestinians and injured 77,765, with approximately 14,500 children killed, exceeding child fatalities in all global conflicts over the last four years combined. - The US Congress approved an additional $17 billion in aid to Israel, adding to $4 billion already sent, which a speaker calculated as roughly "$85 for every American adult" contributing to the war. - The "uncommitted" campaign, particularly in Michigan, mobilized over 101,000 votes, demonstrating widespread discontent beyond Arab and Muslim American communities, encompassing anti-war and pro-peace voters across 73 out of 83 counties. - Polling indicates that 80% of Democrats support a permanent ceasefire and 65% support an end to US weapons aid to Israel, suggesting a significant disconnect between the Democratic base and the party's elected officials. - Activists like Wi'am Shahed argue that the movement lacks the political power to significantly change US policy in the short term, but express optimism for a major shift within the Democratic Party in the next five to ten years due to youth organizing. - Panelists debated the "psychic cost" of voting for Biden, with Leila El-Haddad stating, "it would be very hard for me to make a decision about who I was going to vote for... I don't feel much of a difference" given the current administration's perceived inaction on Palestinian American issues and the ongoing violence. - Peter Beinart suggests that while Donald Trump would likely be worse for Palestinian lives due to lack of internal party pressure, a Biden presidency allows for the Democratic Party to continue evolving on the issue, potentially leading to a more favorable political environment in 2028. **Context:** The discussion, titled "The Election After Gaza," convened panelists Daniel May (Jewish Currents), Leila El-Haddad (Uncommitted National Movement), Wi'am Shahed (former Justice Democrats), Masha Gessen (The New Yorker), and Peter Beinart (Jewish Currents), moderated by Mehdi Hasan. The conversation centered on the profound impact of the ongoing Israeli assault on Gaza, which has resulted in tens of thousands of Palestinian casualties and widespread destruction, on the upcoming US presidential election, particularly within the Democratic Party and its base. Panelists explored the ethical, strategic, and analytical questions surrounding voter choices amidst the conflict and the perceived complicity of US policy. ## Detailed Analysis The panel discussion, "The Election After Gaza," critically examined the profound impact of the Israeli assault on Gaza on US domestic politics and the upcoming presidential election. Daniel May opened by detailing the devastating human cost, including over 34,568 Palestinians killed and 1.7 million displaced, emphasizing American financial complicity through $17 billion in additional aid. The conversation then delved into the significant gulf between the Democratic Party's base and its elected officials regarding US policy on Gaza. Wi'am Shahed noted a minimal shift in the administration's empathy but no substantive policy change, highlighting the pro-Israel community's continued influence within the Democratic Party. Leila El-Haddad, a leader of the "uncommitted" campaign, showcased its success in mobilizing over 101,000 votes in Michigan, demonstrating widespread discontent beyond Arab and Muslim American communities, encompassing a broader anti-war sentiment. Peter Beinart drew parallels to the Iraq War, suggesting a failure of the foreign policy class to learn from past mistakes, and expressed concern that pro-Israel infrastructure might align with authoritarian forces if they perceive a loss of influence within the Democratic Party. Masha Gessen emphasized the unprecedented sense of hypocrisy and disconnection felt by young people, who perceive little difference or even a worsening situation under Biden compared to Trump, leading to a potential appeal of "throw a grenade at the system" rhetoric. The panelists debated the "psychic cost" of voting for Biden, with Leila El-Haddad articulating the difficulty for Palestinian and Muslim Americans to support an administration perceived as complicit in the suffering of their communities. While Wi'am Shahed does not support abandoning Biden or third-party candidates, he stressed the importance of understanding the deep pain driving such sentiments, rooted in post-9/11 experiences of political hiding and suppressed dissent. The discussion concluded with a nuanced perspective on the electoral choice, with Peter Beinart suggesting a reluctant vote for Biden in swing states to prevent a potentially worse Trump presidency for Palestinians and to preserve the Democratic Party's ability to evolve on the issue in future elections. ### Gaza's Humanitarian Crisis and US Complicity - 34,568 Palestinians killed and 77,765 injured between October 7, 2023, and May 1, 2024, including 14,500 children - Over 70% of homes destroyed and 1.7 million civilians forcibly displaced in Gaza - US Congress approved an additional $17 billion in aid to Israel, adding to $4 billion already sent, making Americans financially invested in the war. ### Democratic Party Internal Divisions - A significant gulf exists between the Democratic base and elected officials on Gaza policy, with minimal substantive policy change from the Biden administration despite public pressure - The pro-Israel community remains a strong constituency for Joe Biden's campaign, hindering significant shifts in policy - J Street's decision to pull or threaten endorsements for progressive Democrats like Summer Lee, Jamaal Bowman, and Cory Bush signals a fundamental questioning of its anti-occupation politics. ### The "Uncommitted" Movement's Impact - The "uncommitted" campaign in Michigan garnered over 101,000 votes, demonstrating widespread discontent beyond Arab and Muslim American communities - This movement mobilized unlikely and first-time voters, showing a broad anti-war and pro-peace sentiment across diverse counties - While the movement has a small delegate count (27 total), it aims to be a powerful voice at the Democratic convention, translating public anger into visible political pressure. ### Voter Disillusionment and the "Psychic Cost" - Young people and those with a conscience perceive unprecedented hypocrisy from older generations and the Biden administration, leading to a sense of disconnection from the political process - Many voters, particularly within Arab and Muslim American communities, find it psychologically difficult to vote for Biden due to his administration's perceived complicity in the suffering of their communities - The deep pain and historical context of post-9/11 political hiding contribute to the sentiment of withholding votes as a form of political power. ### The Biden vs. Trump Electoral Dilemma - Panelists debated the strategic and ethical choices for voters, weighing the potential for a worse outcome for Palestinians under a Trump presidency against the current administration's policies - Peter Beinart suggests voting for Biden in swing states to prevent Trump's authoritarianism and preserve the Democratic Party's future capacity for change - Wi'am Shahed notes that Biden's campaign is complacent, believing voters will "come around" by November, but polling suggests a majority of discontented voters would return if weapons aid to Israel were cut.