This is what a Chinese export ban looks like after one year: collapsing supplies, soaring prices

Quick Overview

China's tungsten export controls, implemented in February 2025, have caused global tungsten prices to soar to record highs by late January 2026, as Western nations scramble for supplies while struggling with domestic permitting gridlock and China's dominant market share, which previously forced 98-99% of non-Chinese mines out of business.

Key Points: Tungsten prices hit record highs in January 2026 due to Chinese export controls implemented in February 2025, causing immediate problems for defense contractors and the Pentagon. Prices for ammonium paratungstate (used to make tungsten metal) traded at $1,125 to $1,150 per metric ton unit (mtu) in China, with Rotterdam prices hitting an all-time high near $1,100. China's export volume declined by close to 40% year-on-year since the controls were imposed, and the rest of the world cannot currently increase output fast enough to compensate. Global tungsten production is 84,000 to 98,000 tonnes annually, with China consuming roughly half, while U.S. consumption alone is 10,000 to 11,000 tonnes of tungsten oxide yearly for defense and advanced technologies. Western governments, having run down stockpiles after the Cold War, face severe permitting gridlock, preventing new mines in the U.S. or Europe from opening quickly enough to replace lost Chinese supply. Tungsten is a critical material for armor-piercing munitions and high-end tooling; its supply is availability-driven, as the cost in end products is often too small for consumers to notice, but lack of supply halts production entirely. China previously used subsidized pricing to drive 98-99% of non-Chinese tungsten mines out of business over a six-to-seven-year period, making them the dominant producer.

Context: The video, presented by Kevin Walmsley in Kunming, China, discusses the severe global supply shock caused by China's imposition of export controls on tungsten in February 2025. Tungsten is a critical industrial and defense material, and China dominates its mining and processing. The video references insights from industry experts like William Parry-Jones and Christopher Ecclestone, framing the current crisis as a direct consequence of China leveraging its near-monopoly status after successfully sidelining foreign competitors over the preceding decade.