# This is what a Chinese export ban looks like after one year: collapsing supplies, soaring prices

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sk7-q_zme94
Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/Sk7-q_zme94
Generated: 2026-02-13T16:35:45.171+00:00

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## Quick Overview

China's tungsten export controls, implemented in February 2025, have caused global tungsten prices to soar to record highs by late January 2026, as Western nations scramble for supplies while struggling with domestic permitting gridlock and China's dominant market share, which previously forced 98-99% of non-Chinese mines out of business.

**Key Points:**
- Tungsten prices hit record highs in January 2026 due to Chinese export controls implemented in February 2025, causing immediate problems for defense contractors and the Pentagon.
- Prices for ammonium paratungstate (used to make tungsten metal) traded at $1,125 to $1,150 per metric ton unit (mtu) in China, with Rotterdam prices hitting an all-time high near $1,100.
- China's export volume declined by close to 40% year-on-year since the controls were imposed, and the rest of the world cannot currently increase output fast enough to compensate.
- Global tungsten production is 84,000 to 98,000 tonnes annually, with China consuming roughly half, while U.S. consumption alone is 10,000 to 11,000 tonnes of tungsten oxide yearly for defense and advanced technologies.
- Western governments, having run down stockpiles after the Cold War, face severe permitting gridlock, preventing new mines in the U.S. or Europe from opening quickly enough to replace lost Chinese supply.
- Tungsten is a critical material for armor-piercing munitions and high-end tooling; its supply is availability-driven, as the cost in end products is often too small for consumers to notice, but lack of supply halts production entirely.
- China previously used subsidized pricing to drive 98-99% of non-Chinese tungsten mines out of business over a six-to-seven-year period, making them the dominant producer.

![Screenshot at 00:06: A screenshot of a YouTube video titled "China's new export ban on tungsten shocks defense contractors as Pentagon races to find new supply," illustrating the core subject of China's export restrictions causing supply chain disruption.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/Sk7-q_zme94/00-00-06.jpg)

**Context:** The video, presented by Kevin Walmsley in Kunming, China, discusses the severe global supply shock caused by China's imposition of export controls on tungsten in February 2025. Tungsten is a critical industrial and defense material, and China dominates its mining and processing. The video references insights from industry experts like William Parry-Jones and Christopher Ecclestone, framing the current crisis as a direct consequence of China leveraging its near-monopoly status after successfully sidelining foreign competitors over the preceding decade.

## Detailed Analysis

One year after China announced export controls on tungsten in February 2025, the impact has resulted in soaring prices and collapsing supplies globally. Tungsten prices reached record highs by January 2026. Prices for ammonium paratungstate in China traded between $1,125 and $1,150 per mtu, while Rotterdam prices hit an all-time high near $1,100, with expectations for further increases. China's export volume has declined by nearly 40% year-on-year since the controls began, and non-Chinese production cannot ramp up quickly enough to fill the gap. Global tungsten production stands at 84,000 to 98,000 tonnes annually, with China consuming about half. The U.S. alone requires 10,000 to 11,000 tonnes of tungsten oxide per year for defense and advanced tech. This supply issue is complicated by the fact that Western nations have run down stockpiles since the Cold War and face significant regulatory hurdles (gridlock and local resistance) in opening new mines; it takes years to permit and build new capacity. Experts note that tungsten is availability-driven, not price-driven, because its cost in final products is negligible until it becomes completely unavailable. China achieved its dominance by driving prices down and subsidizing domestic mines, forcing 98-99% of non-Chinese tungsten mines out of business over six to seven years, thereby creating the current chokehold on the supply chain.

### Supply Shock & Price Surge

- Tungsten prices hit record highs in Jan 2026 due to Feb 2025 Chinese export controls
- Prices for ammonium paratungstate hit $1,125-$1,150/mtu in China and ~$1,100 in Rotterdam
- China's export volume dropped nearly 40% year-on-year.

### Market Dominance & Dependence

- Global production is 84k-98k tonnes annually; China consumes half
- US consumption alone is 10k-11k tonnes of oxide annually for defense/tech
- China previously forced 98-99% of non-Chinese mines out of business via subsidies.

### Supply Chain Hurdles

- Rebuilding supply chains is difficult due to permitting gridlock in the U.S. and Europe; new mines take years to open, and few permits were granted recently in the U.S. or Europe.

### Material Importance

- Tungsten is vital for armor-piercing munitions and high-end tooling; its supply is availability-driven because its small cost in end products is outweighed by the complete halt of production if supply ceases.

### Case Study

- Almonty's flagship Sangdong mine in South Korea, which shut down in 1993 due to China's low-price onslaught, is now being rebuilt under a 8-10 year permitting cycle.

![Screenshot at 00:06: A YouTube thumbnail referencing China's export ban on tungsten shocking defense contractors and the Pentagon's scramble for new supply.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/Sk7-q_zme94/00-00-06.jpg)
![Screenshot at 00:30: A chart showing the Tungsten Products Price Trend from Jan 2025 to Dec 2025, illustrating the sharp upward trajectory of concentrate and powder prices.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/Sk7-q_zme94/00-00-30.jpg)
![Screenshot at 00:40: A guidance price forecast chart for Wolframite Concentrate, spanning from late 2022 to late 2025, showing a steep projected price increase.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/Sk7-q_zme94/00-00-40.jpg)
![Screenshot at 01:10: A bar chart and world map illustrating 2024 tungsten mine production data, showing China's overwhelming dominance at 67,000 tonnes compared to the rest of the world combined.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/Sk7-q_zme94/00-01-10.jpg)
![Screenshot at 02:00: Text overlay detailing the Critical Minerals Institute \(CMI\) discussion, highlighting the sobering narrative of outsourcing the entire metal supply chain to China.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/Sk7-q_zme94/00-02-00.jpg)