Why 2026 Is the Start of America’s Next Industrial Super-Cycle w/ Brent Johnson

Quick Overview

Brent Johnson, founder of Santiago AU Fund, asserts that the US will be forced to become self-sufficient in energy and critical minerals by 2026 due to the fracturing US-China relationship, viewing this geopolitical shift as one of the greatest investment opportunities in his 25 years of experience, despite the resulting global disorder.

Key Points: Brent Johnson believes the US must achieve self-sufficiency in energy and critical minerals by 2026 due to geopolitical necessity, specifically the decoupling from China. Johnson describes the Office of Strategic Capital (OSC), established under Biden, as a non-public entity tasked with solving supply chain problems on behalf of the US government. The US global hegemony will persist despite its flaws because it is still more resource-rich and closer to self-sufficiency than other flawed global economies. Johnson cites the 9/11 response—managing 10,000 tons of rubble in Lower Manhattan in about 12 months—as an example of the US government's ability to mobilize for emergencies. He views the current environment as an investment opportunity where betting against the US political establishment and the global hegemon creates potential upside. Johnson notes that his firm, Santiago AU Fund, and others like Steve Feinberg's Cerberus, are actively deploying capital into these critical areas through direct investment or partnerships. He advises investors to focus on capital preservation (not losing money) over aggressive gains in the short term, anticipating volatility.

Context: This discussion features Brent Johnson of Santiago AU Fund being interviewed by John Gillen of Milk Road Macro. The conversation centers on Johnson's recent research regarding the geopolitical and economic implications of US-China decoupling, specifically focusing on the anticipated need for the US to onshore critical supply chains, such as energy and minerals, by 2026. Johnson frames this geopolitical necessity as a significant investment opportunity that his firm is actively pursuing.