# Why 2026 Is the Start of America’s Next Industrial Super-Cycle w/ Brent Johnson Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hw6ihsLA-oI Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/Hw6ihsLA-oI Generated: 2025-11-30T13:04:24.599+00:00 --- ## Quick Overview Brent Johnson, founder of Santiago AU Fund, asserts that the US will be forced to become self-sufficient in energy and critical minerals by 2026 due to the fracturing US-China relationship, viewing this geopolitical shift as one of the greatest investment opportunities in his 25 years of experience, despite the resulting global disorder. **Key Points:** - Brent Johnson believes the US must achieve self-sufficiency in energy and critical minerals by 2026 due to geopolitical necessity, specifically the decoupling from China. - Johnson describes the Office of Strategic Capital (OSC), established under Biden, as a non-public entity tasked with solving supply chain problems on behalf of the US government. - The US global hegemony will persist despite its flaws because it is still more resource-rich and closer to self-sufficiency than other flawed global economies. - Johnson cites the 9/11 response—managing 10,000 tons of rubble in Lower Manhattan in about 12 months—as an example of the US government's ability to mobilize for emergencies. - He views the current environment as an investment opportunity where betting against the US political establishment and the global hegemon creates potential upside. - Johnson notes that his firm, Santiago AU Fund, and others like Steve Feinberg's Cerberus, are actively deploying capital into these critical areas through direct investment or partnerships. - He advises investors to focus on capital preservation (not losing money) over aggressive gains in the short term, anticipating volatility. ![Screenshot at 00:37: Brent Johnson states that the need for US self-sufficiency in critical minerals by 2026, driven by US-China decoupling, represents one of the greatest investment opportunities he has seen in 25 years.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/Hw6ihsLA-oI/00-00-37.png) **Context:** This discussion features Brent Johnson of Santiago AU Fund being interviewed by John Gillen of Milk Road Macro. The conversation centers on Johnson's recent research regarding the geopolitical and economic implications of US-China decoupling, specifically focusing on the anticipated need for the US to onshore critical supply chains, such as energy and minerals, by 2026. Johnson frames this geopolitical necessity as a significant investment opportunity that his firm is actively pursuing. ## Detailed Analysis Brent Johnson argues that the geopolitical landscape, particularly the deteriorating relationship between the United States and China, will force the US to achieve self-sufficiency in critical technology and minerals by 2026. He highlights that the Office of Strategic Capital (OSC), established under the Biden administration and run by Steve Feinberg (formerly of Cerberus), is already tasked with solving these supply chain issues for the US government, although this office is not widely known. Johnson believes that despite its flaws, the US remains the global hegemon because it possesses more resources and is closer to self-sufficiency than other struggling nations. He sees this mandated self-sufficiency push as a massive investment opportunity, noting that his firm, Santiago AU Fund, is already investing directly or partnering with firms whose job is to allocate capital efficiently into these critical areas. Johnson clarifies that this is not a competitive environment where the US must beat everyone, but rather a necessity to avoid being beaten by competitors like China, which has a stranglehold on certain supply chains like battery materials. He draws a parallel to the efficient, unified response after 9/11 to clear rubble, suggesting the government can act decisively when necessary. For investors, he cautions against aggressive hyper-bullishness but emphasizes focusing on capital preservation over the next 6-8 weeks, as markets have had a good year and a correction might be due. ### The Big Beautiful Bill & US Self-Sufficiency - The 'Big Beautiful Bill' is essentially a 21st-century Manhattan Project aimed at making the US self-sufficient in technologies and critical minerals by 2026 - This is being driven by the US-China divorce, as the US must secure supply chains it currently lacks control over - The government is treating this as an emergency that must be handled, evidenced by the creation of the Office of Strategic Capital (OSC). ### Office of Strategic Capital (OSC) - Established under Biden and run by Steve Feinberg (ex-Cerberus), the OSC is tasked with solving these supply chain issues - The OSC is not widely known but is actively deploying capital, either directly or through partnerships, into critical resource areas. ### Geopolitical Competition - The US is competing against China, which has a stranglehold on key manufacturing inputs like battery materials and rare earth elements - Johnson maintains that the US will remain the global hegemon because it is closer to being self-sufficient than other flawed global economies, even though it is not perfect. ### Investment Implications & Caution - Johnson sees betting against the US hegemon as a major opportunity, but cautions investors to focus on capital preservation over immediate gains - He suggests that despite good market performance recently, a dip or correction is likely in the short term (next 6-8 weeks). ![Screenshot at 00:00: John Gillen of Milk Road Macro interviews Brent Johnson of Santiago AU Fund about the impacts of the Big Beautiful Bill.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/Hw6ihsLA-oI/00-00-00.png) ![Screenshot at 00:31: Brent Johnson begins discussing his view that the US-China relationship dynamic creates one of the greatest investment opportunities in decades.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/Hw6ihsLA-oI/00-00-31.png) ![Screenshot at 02:54: Johnson describes the Big Beautiful Bill as essentially a 21st-century Manhattan Project to achieve self-sufficiency by 2026.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/Hw6ihsLA-oI/00-02-54.png) ![Screenshot at 05:49: LG Doucet of Milk Road appears briefly to discuss Reserve's rule-based, diversified approach to crypto assets like tokenized ETFs.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/Hw6ihsLA-oI/00-05-49.png) ![Screenshot at 07:50: Brent Johnson laughs while explaining that the US has never lost a war or battle it had to win, referencing the decisive response to 9/11.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/Hw6ihsLA-oI/00-07-50.png)