Exploring Frontier Climate Interventions with Kelly Erhart | TGS 204

Quick Overview

Kelly Erhart emphasizes that because climate change is now nonlinear, a nonlinear approach involving aggressive research into frontier interventions like ocean alkalinity enhancement and glacier stabilization, alongside mitigation and adaptation, is urgently necessary to manage tail-end risks that are impossible to adapt to.

Key Points: The climate dashboard shows green lights for mitigation success, noting that over a trillion dollars went into clean energy in 2023, doubling fossil fuel investment, with 90% of new US energy sources being renewable. Yellow lights flash because actual emissions are not falling despite deploying clean alternatives, indicating that new energy is being built on top of existing fossil fuel infrastructure rather than replacing it. Red lights indicate grim climate science, driven by increased climate sensitivity, the unmasking of aerosol reflectivity as pollution decreases, natural feedback loops (like permafrost thaw releasing methane), and looming tipping points. Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (OAE), a form of enhanced rock weathering using minerals like olivine, is a promising CDR method that increases the ocean's capacity to absorb carbon as bicarbonate, aiming for the 10 gigatons annually required by the IPCC. Thwaites Glacier, the 'doomsday glacier,' is a major uncertainty, as its collapse is now decoupled from temperature due to basal lubrication, potentially causing up to 2 meters of sea level rise this century or the next, a scenario impossible to adapt to. Methane, a super pollutant responsible for about half of today's warming, requires action, noting that while solutions exist for the oil and gas sector, only about 10% of livestock methane emissions currently have viable mitigation pathways. Solar geoengineering, specifically Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) or sunlight reflection, is the only researched global emergency break for runaway warming, capable of dropping temperatures by 1°C if reflectivity increases by 1%, though it requires careful governance.