# Exploring Frontier Climate Interventions with Kelly Erhart | TGS 204 Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EXeLqr4IlVE Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/EXeLqr4IlVE Generated: 2025-12-10T13:34:20.524+00:00 --- ## Quick Overview Kelly Erhart emphasizes that because climate change is now nonlinear, a nonlinear approach involving aggressive research into frontier interventions like ocean alkalinity enhancement and glacier stabilization, alongside mitigation and adaptation, is urgently necessary to manage tail-end risks that are impossible to adapt to. **Key Points:** - The climate dashboard shows green lights for mitigation success, noting that over a trillion dollars went into clean energy in 2023, doubling fossil fuel investment, with 90% of new US energy sources being renewable. - Yellow lights flash because actual emissions are not falling despite deploying clean alternatives, indicating that new energy is being built on top of existing fossil fuel infrastructure rather than replacing it. - Red lights indicate grim climate science, driven by increased climate sensitivity, the unmasking of aerosol reflectivity as pollution decreases, natural feedback loops (like permafrost thaw releasing methane), and looming tipping points. - Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (OAE), a form of enhanced rock weathering using minerals like olivine, is a promising CDR method that increases the ocean's capacity to absorb carbon as bicarbonate, aiming for the 10 gigatons annually required by the IPCC. - Thwaites Glacier, the 'doomsday glacier,' is a major uncertainty, as its collapse is now decoupled from temperature due to basal lubrication, potentially causing up to 2 meters of sea level rise this century or the next, a scenario impossible to adapt to. - Methane, a super pollutant responsible for about half of today's warming, requires action, noting that while solutions exist for the oil and gas sector, only about 10% of livestock methane emissions currently have viable mitigation pathways. - Solar geoengineering, specifically Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) or sunlight reflection, is the only researched global emergency break for runaway warming, capable of dropping temperatures by 1°C if reflectivity increases by 1%, though it requires careful governance. **Context:** This interview features Kelly Erhart, Director of Partnerships at Outlier Projects and Gigascale Capital, and co-founder of Project Vesta, discussing the critical research frontiers needed to stabilize Earth's climate system. Erhart transitioned from early environmental advocacy to founding climate tech startups, including one focused on ocean alkalinity enhancement, driven by the urgency revealed by events like the San Francisco fires and IPCC reports, leading her to focus on funding research into high-impact, frontier climate risks. ## Detailed Analysis Kelly Erhart analyzes the current climate situation using a dashboard metaphor: green for mitigation wins (trillion-dollar clean energy investment), yellow for emission stagnation (building on top of fossil fuels), and red for accelerating risks. The red risks include higher climate sensitivity, the unmasking of warming due to reduced pollution aerosols, and critical natural feedback loops such as methane release from thawing permafrost and wetlands, which are not yet factored into IPCC models. Erhart argues that due to these nonlinear risks, the toolbox must expand beyond traditional mitigation and adaptation to include large-scale Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR). She highlights Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (OAE) as a key CDR technology that leverages mineral dissolution to safely sequester atmospheric CO2 into the ocean as bicarbonate. Furthermore, she stresses the extreme danger posed by the Thwaites 'doomsday' Glacier, which is undergoing rapid collapse independent of temperature and could cause 2 meters of sea level rise, potentially disrupting major ocean currents like the AMOC. Regarding emergency measures, she discusses Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI) as the primary researched global 'emergency break' to reflect sunlight, noting that this is necessitated partly because the Earth's natural albedo has already dropped by half a percent over 25 years, equivalent to 138 ppm of CO2 warming. Erhart concludes that confronting these terrifying realities requires responsible stewardship and investment in research to drive down the cost of these interventions, even as political will remains the ultimate limiting factor. ### Climate Dashboard Status - Green lights for mitigation deployment (>$1T clean energy investment in 2023) - Yellow lights for flat emissions (building on top of fossil fuels) - Red lights for accelerating risks like feedback loops and tipping points. ### Frontier Interventions Needed - Exploration of tools beyond mitigation and adaptation is necessary due to tail-end risks impossible to adapt to - Research funding accelerates understanding of risks like the Thwaites Glacier collapse. ### Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) Focus - OAE using olivine weathering is crucial for drawing down gigatons of CO2 annually into the ocean as bicarbonate - Closed systems like CCS require infrastructure and energy, while open systems like OAE utilize natural sinks. ### Methane Super Pollutants - Methane causes about half of today's warming and is the second most important greenhouse gas - Mitigation pathways exist for the oil/gas sector, but only 10% of livestock methane emissions currently have viable solutions. ### Natural Feedback Loops - Warming is causing natural systems to produce their own emissions, specifically methane from thawing permafrost and wetlands, which are currently excluded from IPCC models. ### Glacier Instability and Sea Level Rise - Thwaites Glacier collapse is now a matter of 'when,' not 'if,' potentially causing up to 2 meters of sea level rise - This fresh water influx could significantly slow down the AMOC current, impacting global weather patterns. ### Solar Geoengineering (SAI) - SAI, or sunlight reflection via stratospheric aerosols, is the only researched global emergency break for runaway warming - This addresses the hidden warming effect caused by the Earth's natural albedo dropping by half a percent over 25 years.