‘Israel’s Ultimate Objective’ Is To See an Internally Divided Iran

Quick Overview

The main objective of the current Iranian regime, according to the expert, is to see an internally divided Iran, which they aim to achieve by empowering hardline elements like the IRGC and suppressing internal dissent, while the US policy under Trump, which involved assassinating Qasem Soleimani, is seen as a double-edged sword that simultaneously weakened the regime's external projection capabilities while bolstering its internal narrative of resistance against foreign aggression.

Key Points: The Iranian regime's primary objective is to maintain internal cohesion by suppressing any elements, like Kurdish groups or the monarchy's son, that seek autonomy or a return to the previous system. The assassination of Qasem Soleimani in 2020, while a blow to Iran's external operations, paradoxically helped the regime solidify internal control by creating a rallying point against perceived US aggression. The expert argues that Iran's political system is a one-man show led by the Supreme Leader, who has the final say on all matters, including military actions. The current Iranian political culture is highly nationalistic and concerned with preventing internal disintegration, drawing lessons from the collapse of the Shah's regime after the 1953 coup. The US approach of supporting Kurdish and Baluchi groups, while intended to destabilize the regime, risks turning into a proxy war scenario, similar to what occurred in Iraq and Syria. The expert believes that if the Iranian regime were to fall, the resulting chaos would likely lead to a fracturing of the country along ethnic and sectarian lines, creating a massive humanitarian crisis. The regime's continued survival despite external pressure (like sanctions and military threats) suggests its internal repressive capacity remains strong, bolstered by internal support from elements like the IRGC.

Context: The video features an interview between Mehdi Hasan, the host of "Mehdi Unfiltered," and Ali Vaez, an Iranian Affairs Expert from the International Crisis Group. They discuss the internal stability and external objectives of the Iranian regime following the assassination of Qasem Soleimani and the ongoing geopolitical tensions involving the US, Israel, and regional proxies. The discussion centers on whether the regime can survive sustained internal and external pressure, and what a potential collapse might entail for the region.