# ‘Israel’s Ultimate Objective’ Is To See an Internally Divided Iran Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56NBJeBtPhY Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/56NBJeBtPhY Generated: 2026-03-12T16:35:38.979+00:00 --- ## Quick Overview The main objective of the current Iranian regime, according to the expert, is to see an internally divided Iran, which they aim to achieve by empowering hardline elements like the IRGC and suppressing internal dissent, while the US policy under Trump, which involved assassinating Qasem Soleimani, is seen as a double-edged sword that simultaneously weakened the regime's external projection capabilities while bolstering its internal narrative of resistance against foreign aggression. **Key Points:** - The Iranian regime's primary objective is to maintain internal cohesion by suppressing any elements, like Kurdish groups or the monarchy's son, that seek autonomy or a return to the previous system. - The assassination of Qasem Soleimani in 2020, while a blow to Iran's external operations, paradoxically helped the regime solidify internal control by creating a rallying point against perceived US aggression. - The expert argues that Iran's political system is a one-man show led by the Supreme Leader, who has the final say on all matters, including military actions. - The current Iranian political culture is highly nationalistic and concerned with preventing internal disintegration, drawing lessons from the collapse of the Shah's regime after the 1953 coup. - The US approach of supporting Kurdish and Baluchi groups, while intended to destabilize the regime, risks turning into a proxy war scenario, similar to what occurred in Iraq and Syria. - The expert believes that if the Iranian regime were to fall, the resulting chaos would likely lead to a fracturing of the country along ethnic and sectarian lines, creating a massive humanitarian crisis. - The regime's continued survival despite external pressure (like sanctions and military threats) suggests its internal repressive capacity remains strong, bolstered by internal support from elements like the IRGC. ![Screenshot at 00:52: Media outlets like The New York Times and CNN reported on widespread celebrations among Iranians following false reports of Supreme Leader Khamenei's death, which the expert uses to illustrate the deep-seated opposition to the current regime.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/56NBJeBtPhY/00-00-52.jpg) **Context:** The video features an interview between Mehdi Hasan, the host of "Mehdi Unfiltered," and Ali Vaez, an Iranian Affairs Expert from the International Crisis Group. They discuss the internal stability and external objectives of the Iranian regime following the assassination of Qasem Soleimani and the ongoing geopolitical tensions involving the US, Israel, and regional proxies. The discussion centers on whether the regime can survive sustained internal and external pressure, and what a potential collapse might entail for the region. ## Detailed Analysis The expert, Ali Vaez, contends that the primary objective of the Iranian regime, even after the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is to prevent the internal fragmentation of Iran, particularly along ethnic and sectarian lines. He notes that the regime has learned lessons from the 1953 coup that overthrew the Shah, which was heavily influenced by Western intervention, leading to a system designed to absorb external shocks and maintain centralized control. Vaez points out that the Supreme Leader remains the ultimate authority, making critical decisions. He addresses the US strategy of arming Kurdish and Baluchi groups on Iran's borders, suggesting this risks creating proxy wars similar to those seen in Iraq, Syria, and Libya, which ultimately destabilize the region. Vaez argues that the assassination of Soleimani, while a blow to Iran's external reach, actually served to unify the population internally against the US, making the regime's survival more likely in the short term. He suggests that any successor, like the current Crown Prince Mohammad Reza Pahlavi (if he were to return), would need overwhelming support (perhaps 90%) from the Iranian populace to succeed where the Shah failed, a level of domestic backing that is currently absent. The current regime's internal structure is highly entrenched, relying on groups like the IRGC, whose strength has only recently been tested by internal dissent and external pressure, such as Israeli actions in the Gulf. ### Analysis of Iranian Regime Survival - The regime survived 20 years against the US military due to its deeply entrenched and internally focused structure - It learned from the 1953 coup and is designed to absorb shocks and maintain control. ### US Policy and Soleimani Assassination - The killing of Soleimani was a double-edged sword—it damaged external operations but bolstered the internal narrative of resistance against the US. ### Internal Opposition and Kurdish Groups - There is significant internal anger and frustration, but no single organized force (like the Kurdish or Baluchi groups) has the capacity to challenge the regime's central control effectively. ### Succession Scenario - A key obstacle for any potential successor, such as the Shah's son, is the lack of popular domestic support (estimated at 10% consensus) needed to maintain control without external backing. ### Regional Proxy Wars - US support for Kurdish and Baluchi groups risks escalating conflicts into proxy wars across the region (Iraq, Syria, Libya), leading to massive humanitarian crises if the central government collapses. ![Screenshot at 00:01: The show's title screen, "MEHDI UNFILTERED," with Mehdi Hasan hosting an interview via video link.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/56NBJeBtPhY/00-00-01.jpg) ![Screenshot at 00:52: A collage of headlines from The New York Times, CNN World, and Fox News reporting on Iranian celebrations following false reports of Khamenei's death.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/56NBJeBtPhY/00-00-52.jpg) ![Screenshot at 01:14: A CNN World headline graphic stating, "CIA working to arm Kurdish forces to spark uprising in Iran, sources say," shown during the discussion about US strategy.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/56NBJeBtPhY/00-01-14.jpg) ![Screenshot at 03:10: A graphic overlay from Ground News illustrating the media bias distribution of sources used, showing 69% lean Left.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/56NBJeBtPhY/00-03-10.jpg)