Prices Could Keep Falling Through 2026 in These Housing Markets

Quick Overview

Zillow forecasts that housing prices will continue to fall or remain flat nationally through September 2026, with the most significant price declines projected in the South and parts of the West, while the Midwest and Northeast are expected to see modest, relatively flat growth, suggesting a prolonged correction period rather than a sharp crash.

Key Points: Zillow forecasts national metro-level home prices to grow only +1.9% between September 2025 and September 2026, indicating a significant slowdown from previous years. The markets with the fastest year-over-year rent change (projected for Sep 2025) are heavily concentrated in the South and West, with Austin, TX, leading at +130.0% growth in seller outnumbering buyers percentage. The 15 metros with the slowest YoY rent change (projected for Sep 2025) are dominated by Louisiana, Texas, and California, with Houma, LA, forecasted to decline by -7.4%. The speaker believes that while price corrections in overheated markets like Austin and Florida are necessary, they will be gradual (e.g., 10-15% off peak) rather than a crash, and will eventually return to a normal 3-4.5% annual appreciation rate. Markets with strong economic fundamentals like Nashville and Dallas are expected to continue seeing some positive growth (e.g., Nashville is in the top 10 for fastest YoY rent change), contrasting with markets where price declines are predicted. The speaker views the current environment as an opportunity for cash-flow-focused investors to find deals, especially in markets that have seen significant price declines but still possess strong underlying economic factors. The podcast host, Dave Meyer, is republishing popular episodes for the holidays and will return with new content on January 2nd.

Context: The host, Dave Meyer, is discussing housing market forecasts for the next year (September 2025 to September 2026), using data from a Zillow forecast published in October 2025, as analyzed by Lance Lambert of ResiClub. The discussion focuses on the divergence between metros expected to see price declines (primarily in the South/West) and those expected to see modest growth (Midwest/Northeast), emphasizing that the overall national trend is toward slower growth or flat pricing.