# Prices Could Keep Falling Through 2026 in These Housing Markets Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2YwqKYxkQBg Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/2YwqKYxkQBg Generated: 2025-12-26T15:01:45.995+00:00 --- ## Quick Overview Zillow forecasts that housing prices will continue to fall or remain flat nationally through September 2026, with the most significant price declines projected in the South and parts of the West, while the Midwest and Northeast are expected to see modest, relatively flat growth, suggesting a prolonged correction period rather than a sharp crash. **Key Points:** - Zillow forecasts national metro-level home prices to grow only +1.9% between September 2025 and September 2026, indicating a significant slowdown from previous years. - The markets with the fastest year-over-year rent change (projected for Sep 2025) are heavily concentrated in the South and West, with Austin, TX, leading at +130.0% growth in seller outnumbering buyers percentage. - The 15 metros with the slowest YoY rent change (projected for Sep 2025) are dominated by Louisiana, Texas, and California, with Houma, LA, forecasted to decline by -7.4%. - The speaker believes that while price corrections in overheated markets like Austin and Florida are necessary, they will be gradual (e.g., 10-15% off peak) rather than a crash, and will eventually return to a normal 3-4.5% annual appreciation rate. - Markets with strong economic fundamentals like Nashville and Dallas are expected to continue seeing some positive growth (e.g., Nashville is in the top 10 for fastest YoY rent change), contrasting with markets where price declines are predicted. - The speaker views the current environment as an opportunity for cash-flow-focused investors to find deals, especially in markets that have seen significant price declines but still possess strong underlying economic factors. - The podcast host, Dave Meyer, is republishing popular episodes for the holidays and will return with new content on January 2nd. ![Screenshot at 15:33: Zillow's forecast map showing metro-level home price change predictions between September 2025 and September 2026, highlighting Austin, TX, as having the highest seller dominance \(+130.0%\) among the 10 strongest buyer's markets.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/2YwqKYxkQBg/00-15-33.jpg) **Context:** The host, Dave Meyer, is discussing housing market forecasts for the next year (September 2025 to September 2026), using data from a Zillow forecast published in October 2025, as analyzed by Lance Lambert of ResiClub. The discussion focuses on the divergence between metros expected to see price declines (primarily in the South/West) and those expected to see modest growth (Midwest/Northeast), emphasizing that the overall national trend is toward slower growth or flat pricing. ## Detailed Analysis Dave Meyer, host of the BiggerPockets podcast, opens by announcing a rerun of popular episodes for the holiday season and promises new content starting January 2nd. He immediately dives into analyzing Zillow's forecast for metro-level home price change between September 2025 and September 2026, which projects only a +1.9% national growth, indicating a significant slowdown. Meyer points to a chart showing the 10 strongest buyer's markets (where sellers outnumber buyers by the largest percentage), dominated by Texas and Florida metros like Austin (+130.0% seller dominance), Fort Lauderdale (+118.5%), and West Palm Beach (+113.0%). Conversely, he shows a list of the 15 metros with the slowest YoY rent change, mostly in the South/West (Louisiana, Texas, California), where Houma, LA, is forecasted to decline by -7.4%. Meyer emphasizes that while the overall trend is cooling, the Midwest and Northeast (like Atlantic City, NJ at +5.4% rent growth) are expected to show flat or modest positive growth. He argues that while price corrections are happening in formerly hot markets (like Austin dropping 10-15% off peak), this is healthier than a crash, suggesting a return to normal appreciation rates (3-4.5%). He concludes that for savvy, conservative investors, this environment presents opportunities to find deals in markets correcting due to high supply, as opposed to the high-growth areas that are still expensive. ### Holiday Schedule Announcement - Host is republishing popular episodes until January 2nd. ### Zillow 2025-2026 Price Forecast - National YoY home price change expected to be only +1.9% between Sep 2025 and Sep 2026. ### Top 10 Strongest Buyer's Markets (Seller Dominance) - Austin, TX leads at +130.0% seller outnumbering buyers; top markets include FL, TX, NV (09:09-11:55). ### Metros with Slowest YoY Rent Change (Forecast) - Houma, LA leads declines at -7.4%; the list heavily features LA, TX, and CA metros (20:00-20:40). ### Regional Trends Analysis - Midwest and Northeast show modest positive rent growth (+2.5% to +5.4%), while the South/West show declines or flat growth. ### Investor Takeaway - Current market corrections present opportunities for cash flow-focused investors willing to take calculated risks in markets where prices have corrected but fundamentals remain strong (23:24-23:40). ![Screenshot at 00:00: Host Dave Meyer begins the podcast episode, wearing a cap and headphones.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/2YwqKYxkQBg/00-00-00.jpg) ![Screenshot at 02:44: Map showing Zillow's 1-year forecast for metro-level home price change between Aug 2024 and Aug 2025, color-coded by expected change.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/2YwqKYxkQBg/00-02-44.jpg) ![Screenshot at 11:17: A table listing 'The 10 Strongest Buyer's Markets of September 2025 \(Estimated\)', with Austin, TX ranked #1.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/2YwqKYxkQBg/00-11-17.jpg) ![Screenshot at 20:10: A list titled 'Metros with Slowest YoY Rent Change \(min. 1M residents\)', showing Houma, LA forecasted to decline by -7.4%.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/2YwqKYxkQBg/00-20-10.jpg) ![Screenshot at 27:38: A slide showing metros with the fastest YoY rent change, led by San Francisco \(+4.9%\) and Chicago \(+4.1%\).](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/2YwqKYxkQBg/00-27-38.jpg)