Is there a new plague lurking in the permafrost?

Quick Overview

The primary risk from thawing permafrost is not the reawakening of ancient, known pathogens like Anthrax, Smallpox, or Flu, but rather the potential for unknown, highly complex viruses or bacteria, possibly carrying novel genes, to emerge and spread rapidly due to the lack of current human immunity or technology to combat them.

Key Points: Ancient microbes, including bacteria like Anthrax and Clostridium, have been successfully revived from permafrost after tens of thousands of years (e.g., a 48,500-year-old virus was revived). Giant viruses, like Pithovirus sibericum and Pandoravirus dulcis, are significantly larger than common viruses (like flu) and possess thousands of genes, blurring the line between viruses and bacteria. The risk of a pandemic from permafrost thaw is concentrated in the Arctic, where the permafrost extent is comparable to the size of North America, and warming is occurring four times faster than the global average. While some known pathogens like Anthrax have been revived from ancient remains (like a 30,000-year-old plant seed or a 1918 reindeer carcass), they may be less of a pandemic threat because humans have some existing immunity or technological countermeasures (like antibiotics or vaccines). The greatest concern is the emergence of entirely unknown pathogens, possibly giant viruses or complex bacteria, that could successfully complete all five steps to cause a pandemic (preserved, survive, meet, infect, spread) because humans lack any corresponding immune response or technology. The survival rate of ancient microbes through the thaw process (Step 2) is highly variable; some known pathogens like Anthrax and Clostridium have shown capability to survive and meet a host, but viruses like Smallpox and Flu have not yet been confirmed to successfully complete the subsequent infection and spread stages.

Context: The video explores the scientific concern regarding ancient microbes, including viruses and bacteria, preserved deep within Siberian permafrost that could be released due to accelerating global warming and Arctic thaw. Host Adam Cole discusses the probability of these ancient lifeforms causing a pandemic, referencing historical discoveries of revived microbes and comparing the complexity of bacteria, giant viruses, and modern viruses. The discussion features expert insights from Jean-Michel Claverie, who has researched resurrected ancient viruses, and Rachel Mackelprang, a microbiologist, to assess the actual risk posed by this phenomenon.