“This is Bibi’s War” - Harvard’s Graham Allison on the Influences and Endgame of the Iran War

Quick Overview

Harvard Professor Graham Allison assesses the recent US/Israel attack on Iran, concluding there is immense uncertainty, praising the military power demonstrated, but warning that regime change is historically difficult, labeling the conflict highly controversial as "Bibi's war" driven by Netanyahu's long-standing obsession with Iran, while simultaneously downplaying the immediate threat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan due to internal military purges and anticipated political shifts in Taiwan.

Key Points: Allison emphasizes that the current situation is marked by "a huge level of uncertainty" due to the "fog of war" amplified by figures like Trump and Netanyahu, noting conflicting reasons and objectives for the war. He praises the US and Israeli military and intelligence capabilities as "way way way off the charts" following two decades of investment, but stresses that "breaking something's a lot easier than building something," citing poor historical results from regime change efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan. Allison controversially defines the conflict as "Bibi's war," arguing Netanyahu has had a two-decade obsession with confronting Iran, succeeding in persuading Trump despite a lack of clear evidence that Iran was immediately about to acquire a nuclear weapon or attack the US. Regarding China and Taiwan, Allison places the likelihood of an attack in the immediate future (this year or next) as "very low" (around 5%), citing Taiwan's current political struggles, a deep purge of Chinese military leadership, and Trump being the "most accommodating president" China is likely to see on Taiwan. Allison notes the unexpected downside consequences of the Middle East conflict, such as the impact on global energy supplies and the diversion of Patriot missiles intended for Ukraine to the Middle East. He highlights the post-WWII international security framework based on the '80-80-9' framework: 80 years since a world war, 80 years since a nuclear weapon was used in war, and 9 current nuclear powers, all of which he views as fragile and eroding. Allison expresses deep concern regarding domestic US instability driven by extreme wealth inequality, stating that when the top 10-20% take 70-80% of the economic pie, it creates a political invitation for unreasonable populists and demagogues.