# Scott Trench’s $1,000,000 Bet on Real Estate (Did It Pay Off?) Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y4rF52gCsyc Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/y4rF52gCsyc Generated: 2026-01-21T14:35:37.546+00:00 --- ## Quick Overview Scott Trench admitted he would not make his previous $1 million stock portfolio bet today, stating that while he still believes in real estate's long-term benefits, the current market conditions, particularly low rent growth, high interest rates, and increased supply, make it a more challenging environment for new investors than it was a few years ago. **Key Points:** - Scott Trench sold $1 million of his stock portfolio a year prior to invest in paid-off real estate in Denver, a decision that resulted in a 15% return for the S&P 500 in the following year. - Trench's current real estate portfolio allocation is roughly 45% in real estate equity (multi-family in Denver) and 55% in stock market investments (including index funds, Roth, HSA equivalents). - Trench forecasts that 2026 rent growth will be much more muted (3-4% range) compared to the double-digit growth seen in 2021-2022 due to factors like high interest rates and slowing demand. - He notes that the current Denver market has low vacancy rates but also high property prices and low cap rates (around 6.5% for a duplex he underwrote), which makes finding deals harder. - The primary challenge for investors now is that nobody is being forced to sell properties, unlike during the 2010s when foreclosures and life events drove supply. - Trench advises that while real estate remains a solid way to build wealth and achieve financial freedom, new investors should exercise caution and potentially be more conservative with leverage than they might have been previously. - The discussion concludes with the comparison between stocks (which are 'out of my control') and real estate (which he feels he has more control over via house hacking or management). ![Screenshot at 00:01: The host introduces the core question of whether to invest in real estate or pour money into the stock market, setting up the comparison central to the discussion.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/y4rF52gCsyc/00-00-01.jpg) **Context:** This is an interview segment from the BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast, hosted by Dave Meyer, featuring guest Scott Trench, who is the Head of Real Estate Investing at BiggerPockets and author of "Start with Strategy" and "Real Estate by the Numbers." The conversation centers on comparing Trench's past investment decisions (moving capital from stocks to real estate) with the current market outlook for 2026, focusing on whether his current real estate-heavy strategy remains sound given changing economic factors. ## Detailed Analysis Host Dave Meyer introduces the follow-up to a popular episode from a year ago, asking former BiggerPockets CEO Scott Trench if his $1 million stock portfolio divestment into Denver real estate was worth it, especially since the S&P 500 subsequently rose 15%. Trench confirms that while he doesn't regret the past move, his current investment strategy is more conservative. Trench's portfolio is currently split approximately 45% in real estate equity (multi-family in Denver) and 55% in stock investments (including index funds and tax-advantaged accounts like Roth and HSA equivalents). Regarding the 2026 outlook, Trench predicts that rent growth will slow significantly compared to the double-digit growth seen previously, settling into a 3-4% range nationally, and perhaps slightly higher in Denver. He attributes this to slowing demand, high interest rates, and low supply leading to high prices and low cap rates (around 6.5% for a recent duplex he underwrote). The major challenge now, according to Trench, is that there is no forced selling pressure (like foreclosures or divorces) driving inventory, which makes finding good deals harder than it was in the 2010s. He advises that while real estate remains a superior wealth-building tool for him due to perceived control over cash flow and expenses, new investors must be cautious about leverage in this environment. ### Scott Life Update - Trench is no longer the CEO of BiggerPockets, is focusing on his own investments, and wrote the book "Set For Life." ### Was Selling Worth It? - Trench sold $1 million in stocks a year ago to buy paid-off real estate in Denver; while it performed well, the S&P 500 also performed strongly afterward. ### 2026 Outlook - Predicts rent growth will slow to 3-4% nationally due to lower supply, high interest rates, and slowing demand, making deals harder to find. ### Scott's Investment Portfolio - Allocation is 45% real estate equity (multi-family in Denver) and 55% stock market investments (index funds, Roth, HSA equivalents). ### The “Absorption” Phase Begins - High property prices and low cap rates (around 6.5% for a recent duplex) mean new deals must have strong cash flow to justify purchase, as appreciation/rent growth is expected to slow. ### Where's All the Deals? - Deals are harder to find because there is no forced selling pressure (foreclosures, etc.) driving inventory like in the past. ### Stocks vs. Real Estate (Are Either Safe?) - Trench feels more in control of real estate outcomes (expenses, management) than the stock market, which he views as too volatile and outside his control. ![Screenshot at 00:01: The host introduces the core question of whether to invest in real estate or pour money into the stock market, setting up the comparison central to the discussion.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/y4rF52gCsyc/00-00-01.jpg) ![Screenshot at 00:17: A graphic displaying stock market data flashes briefly, contrasting with the real estate imagery, emphasizing the choice between asset classes.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/y4rF52gCsyc/00-00-17.jpg) ![Screenshot at 00:23: Dave Meyer introduces Scott Trench, detailing his role as Co-Host of BiggerPockets Money and author of "Set For Life."](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/y4rF52gCsyc/00-00-23.jpg) ![Screenshot at 00:56: An 'In This Episode' graphic lists the main discussion topics, including Scott's portfolio and the 2026 outlook.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/y4rF52gCsyc/00-00-56.jpg) ![Screenshot at 12:44: A screen capture of the RESimpli dashboard shows analytics like Deals Tracker, Revenue Tracker, and Net Income Tracker, illustrating the software tools Trench uses for property management.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/y4rF52gCsyc/00-12-44.jpg)