# Jason’s Top CES Products and Takeaways | E2232 Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xi5000lhL9o Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/xi5000lhL9o Generated: 2026-01-10T03:32:51.903+00:00 --- ## Quick Overview The discussion centers on major technology and startup trends emerging from CES 2024, specifically focusing on the renewed vigor in the IPO and M&A markets, significant advancements in AI, and the confidential IPO filings of major tech companies like Discord and Strava. **Key Points:** - Discord filed confidentially to go public, though its current secondary market valuation of $7 to $8 billion is down from the $15 billion valuation it commanded after rejecting Microsoft's $10 to $12 billion offer. - Strava also filed confidentially, boasting over 50% growth last year and being profitable, with projected revenue around $500 million, leading to questions about how Sequoia secured a relatively cheap early valuation. - The Boston Dynamics humanoid robot, now owned 80% by Hyundai, is highlighted as a top CES product because it features an LLM attachment, making it practical for industrial automation and potentially mass-manufacturable at scale. - The return of the IPO market is confirmed, with the speaker predicting 2026 and 2027 will see accelerated M&A activity following the return of M&A in 2025. - Chinese AI firms Zippu AI (Z.AI) and Minimax went public in Hong Kong, with Minimax doubling on its first day, demonstrating a willingness to list companies with much lower revenue ($50M-$70M run rate) compared to US IPO expectations ($1B+). - Anthropic is reportedly raising $10 billion at a $350 billion valuation, led by GIC and COATU, maintaining a relatively stable effective multiple (around 35x current run rate) despite rapid growth, which the speaker deems not 'crazy' for such a fast-growing firm. - NVIDIA announced an open-source, end-to-end AI solution (software and hardware stack) for autonomous driving, positioning itself against proprietary stacks like Waymo and Tesla to accelerate adoption across all automakers. **Context:** This episode of This Week in Startups (TWiST), recorded on January 9th, 2021 (though the discussion reflects 2024/2025 events based on product mentions like FSD 14.2.2.2 and the mention of 2025 revenue reports), covers key takeaways from CES, the state of the public markets (IPOs and M&A), and major developments in the AI sector. The hosts discuss these trends while also touching upon personal news, such as Alex preparing for paternity leave, and offer sponsor plugs for Circle.so, HubSpot, and Sentry. ## Detailed Analysis The core value of the discussion lies in analyzing the resurgence of public market activity and the maturation of AI technology showcased at CES. The hosts confirm that M&A and IPOs are back, evidenced by Discord and Strava filing confidentially, though noting Discord's valuation contraction. They express excitement for more mid-cap public companies. CES provided concrete examples of AI integration, notably the Hyundai-owned Boston Dynamics robot featuring an LLM, suggesting mass production capability due to Hyundai’s manufacturing expertise, with price points potentially dropping to $5,000-$10,000 eventually. In AI, the massive private funding for Anthropic at a $350B valuation is deemed rational based on its growth multiples, contrasting with the US trend of waiting for scale before IPOs. Conversely, Hong Kong saw early IPOs for smaller AI firms like Z.AI and Minimax, which experienced immediate pop. Furthermore, NVIDIA is accelerating autonomy by offering an open-source software and hardware stack to automakers, creating an 'Android moment' against closed systems like Tesla's FSD, aiming to sell more onboard computers. Throughout, lessons on building moats via data lock-in (like Strava's subscription data) and the importance of hiring senior talent ('bar raisers') are shared. ### CES 2024 Product Highlights - Boston Dynamics' new humanoid robot with an LLM attached is a top pick - Hyundai's mass manufacturing capability suggests these robots could reach hundreds of thousands of units - Mercedes demonstrated Level 2 autonomy in a $40,000 range car, indicating rapid progress toward Level 4. ### Public Market Activity (IPOs and M&A) - Discord filed confidentially for an IPO, though its valuation has decreased since Microsoft's previous offer - Strava also filed confidentially, showing profitability and 50%+ growth last year - M&A is 'back on the menu,' accelerating in 2026 and 2027. ### AI Funding and Valuation - Anthropic seeks $10B at a $350B valuation, which is deemed reasonable with a 35x current run rate multiple - Chinese AI firms Z.AI and Minimax IPO'd in Hong Kong early with low revenue, unlike US trends - Meta's acquisition of Singapore-domiciled AI agent Manus for $2.5B sparks regulatory scrutiny from China. ### Autonomous Driving Competition - NVIDIA released an open-source end-to-end AI stack (software/hardware) to enable any automaker to build self-driving capabilities, competing against proprietary systems like Waymo and Tesla FSD - The host warns about trusting FSD implicitly, citing risks in construction zones, while acknowledging its current high quality. ### Business Strategy Lessons - Data lock-in from subscription services like Strava ($80/year) creates the strongest moat, making user data hard to leave - Founders must hire 'bar raisers'—senior experts—to fill knowledge gaps, even if it challenges younger leaders' egos - Building durable companies involves developing multiple revenue streams, exemplified by Amazon's AWS, e-commerce, and ads.