The Iran War Expert: I Simulated The Iran War for 20 Years. Here’s What Happens Next

Quick Overview

Professor Robert Pape predicts a 75% chance that the US is escalating to Stage Three of the Iran conflict, which involves the potential for limited ground deployments, because initial tactical successes from air strikes failed to locate dispersed nuclear material and led to a more aggressive Iranian leadership.

Key Points: Professor Robert Pape, advising presidents since 2001, states that bombs change politics, emphasizing that tactical success (hitting targets) often results in strategic failure if politics are ignored. Simulations run by Pape indicate that after the initial bombing campaign, the US would not know the location of Iran's nuclear material, which included material for 16 nuclear bombs, leading to panic and consideration of regime change within a year. The new, aggressive Supreme Leader, who replaced the one who opposed nuclear weapons (issuing two fatwas against them), is backed by the aggressive Revolutionary Guard, incentivizing retaliation against the attacker. The conflict is progressing through three stages: Stage One is the 'smart bomb trap' (tactical success/strategic failure), Stage Two is regime change efforts, and Stage Three involves retaliation approaching the homeland, possibly triggered by ground deployments. Iran is currently winning the escalation war via 'horizontal escalation' (Stage Two) using precision drones to attack coalition partners like Saudi Arabia and the UAE to force them to kick out American forces and bases. Pape notes that President Trump unilaterally ripped up the Obama deal in 2018, which had virtually removed all enriched material under 24/7 monitoring, leading Iran to rapidly upgrade enrichment to 60%.

Context: The discussion features Professor Robert Pape, an expert in military strategy and political violence who has advised every White House from 2001 to 2024, analyzing the current conflict escalation involving the US and Iran following recent military actions, including the removal of the former Supreme Leader.