Divided We Stand? David Brady on America’s “New Electoral Instability”

Quick Overview

Political scientist David Brady explains that American politics has entered a new era of electoral instability characterized by parity between the Democratic and Republican parties, a shift driven by the ideological sorting of conservatives into the GOP starting around the 1980s and manifesting today as hyperpartisan politics where partisans rarely defect.

Key Points: The post-war period divides into three eras: sustained Democratic advantage through 1980, a transition period from 1980 to 1994, and the current era of political parity. The shift to parity began with conservatives moving from the Democratic party to the Republican party during the 1980-1994 period, a realignment that permeated nearly every major demographic cleavage. Hyperpartisan politics means that over 90% of Democrats vote Democrat and 90% of Republicans vote Republican in recent elections, placing the deciding weight on moderate independents. In past elections, like 2012, traditional polls oversampled Republicans after a bad debate, whereas tracking polls interviewing the same people showed only a half-percent switch, demonstrating the advantage of longitudinal data. The current political landscape sees college-educated voters favoring Democrats while those with a high school education or less favor Republicans, a gap that has increased through Trump's elections. Brady suggests that attempting to impeach a president, as firebrand Democrats wanted against George W. Bush in 2006, is not an effective strategy for winning moderates; policy discussions around affordability and inflation drive swing votes. Donald Trump generates the highest vote turnouts since 1910 and commands an unbinding loyalty from his MAGA base (30-40% of the GOP), but this loyalty shows signs of fracturing regarding certain extreme foreign policy positions.

Context: The podcast episode features host Bill Whan interviewing David Brady, a Davies Family Senior Fellow Emeritus at the Hoover Institution and Professor at Stanford's Graduate School of Business, about his book co-authored with Brett Parker, "From Dominance to Parity: America's Political Parties in the New Era of Electoral Instability." The discussion centers on analyzing long-term trends in American electoral volatility, focusing on the shift from periods of one-party dominance to the current state of near-equal partisan competition, particularly in the context of the upcoming 2026 midterm elections.