The China rare earths problem isn't as bad as we think. It's much worse: a look at gallium

Quick Overview

China's near-total monopoly on gallium production, stemming from its dominance in bauxite mining and subsequent government policies, presents a significant national security challenge to the West, especially as gallium-based semiconductors become vital for advanced military and commercial technologies like 5G and electric vehicles.

Key Points: China currently controls a near-total monopoly over the global supply chain for critical minerals, including 98% of raw gallium production as of the video's data. Gallium is a byproduct of bauxite mining and smelting for aluminum, and China's low-purity gallium production exploded from 22 metric tons (2005) to 444 metric tons (2015) due to government requirements. Gallium-based chips (GaN and GaAs) are vital for high-performance applications like advanced military equipment (radar, missile defense, F-35 stealth aircraft) and commercial uses (5G base towers, solar cells, electric vehicles). The US aluminum industry has declined significantly since its 1980s peak, with 28 primary aluminum smelters built before 1940 eventually closing, leaving the US with virtually no domestic primary gallium production. A CSIS report suggests five measures for the US and allies to de-risk supply chains, with the first step being to invest in domestic gallium extraction and refinement capabilities. Gallium ranks highest in terms of both economic vulnerability and disruption potential on a USGS critical minerals risk chart. China's 14th Five Year Plan explicitly identifies wide bandgap semiconductors like Gallium Nitride (GaN) as a key focus area to leapfrog US, European, and Japanese technology.

Context: The video, presented by Kevin Walmsley from Kunming, China, examines the critical importance of gallium, a material whose supply is overwhelmingly controlled by China, posing severe security and technological risks to Western nations. The discussion centers on how China leveraged its dominance in aluminum production—where gallium is a byproduct—to establish a near-monopoly, threatening Western defense and high-tech industries reliant on gallium-based semiconductors (GaN and GaAs).