# Ok, Now It's Official...The Sh*t Is Hitting The Fan Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=voH0hj8L0II Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/voH0hj8L0II Generated: 2026-01-04T03:16:01.515+00:00 --- ## Quick Overview Wholesale gasoline prices are falling to seasonal lows not seen since 2019, indicating weakening demand and a loss of momentum in the real economy, contradicting official GDP data, which the speaker argues is being drastically overstated by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. **Key Points:** - Wholesale gasoline prices hit new lows as of January 2, 2026, matching levels last seen around November 29, 2023, demonstrating weak seasonal demand. - NYMEX WTI Futures for gasoline show a clear downtrend in the futures curve, moving into contango, which implies falling expectations for future prices. - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data shows gasoline supply is running at 8.76 million barrels per day, unchanged from the previous year, implying weak demand despite high production driven by artificial factors like tariffs. - Federal Reserve regional manufacturing PMIs (average of five indices) have been negative for 35 consecutive months through December 2025, with the latest reading at -13.6. - The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index shows expectations for unemployment next year hitting the second-highest level on record, indicating severe consumer pessimism. - S&P Global's PMI data shows a significant gap between production growth and falling orders, the widest since the 2008-2009 financial crisis, suggesting current production levels are unsustainable. ![Screenshot at 00:07: The speaker points out that wholesale gasoline prices should be rising due to winter demand but are instead hitting new lows, signaling weak demand.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/voH0hj8L0II/00-00-07.jpg) **Context:** The video analyzes current economic indicators, focusing on energy prices (gasoline futures), manufacturing health (PMIs), and consumer sentiment, to argue that the official narrative of a strong economy, exemplified by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's optimistic views, is contradicted by underlying real-world data showing weakening demand and increasing economic strain. ## Detailed Analysis The speaker asserts that wholesale gasoline prices are currently falling to seasonal lows, which contradicts official economic optimism, particularly that expressed by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. He highlights that gasoline futures are trading flat or slightly down, unlike typical winter behavior, suggesting demand weakness. The EIA data for weekly product supplied of finished motor gasoline shows the latest 4-week average near 8.76 million barrels per day, unchanged from the prior year, indicating a lack of growth despite artificial highs caused by tariff distortions. Furthermore, Federal Reserve regional manufacturing PMIs have been negative for 35 consecutive months through December 2025, with the latest reading at -13.6, showing manufacturing contraction. The services sector PMI is also deeply negative at -13.6. Consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan shows expectations for unemployment next year are at the second-highest level on record, indicating widespread pessimism. The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI data reveals the widest gap between production growth and falling orders since the 2008-2009 financial crisis, signaling that current production levels are unsustainable. The speaker concludes that all these metrics—falling energy prices, weak PMIs, and collapsing consumer sentiment—point toward a significant loss of momentum heading into 2026, regardless of what official GDP figures might suggest. ### Gasoline Futures Analysis - Wholesale gasoline prices hit new lows (around $1.70/gallon by Jan 2, 2026) that match previous lows from late 2023, defying expected winter rise - NYMEX WTI Futures curve is in contango (lower future prices), suggesting falling expectations, driven by weak underlying demand. ### Energy Supply Data - EIA data shows weekly gasoline supply at 8.76 million barrels per day (4-week average), unchanged from last year, indicating lack of growth despite tariff-induced artificial highs earlier in 2025. ### Manufacturing Health (PMIs) - Average of five Federal Reserve Regional Manufacturing PMIs registered -13.6 for Dec 2025 (the 35th consecutive negative month) - Services sector PMI was -13.6 for Dec 2025, showing continued contraction in services. ### Consumer Sentiment & Expectations - UofM Survey shows expectations for unemployment next year are at the second-highest level on record, indicating severe consumer pessimism, contradicting official GDP narratives. ### S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Data - Shows the widest gap between production growth and falling orders since the 2008-2009 financial crisis, indicating that current production levels are unsustainable unless demand improves. ### Market Disconnect - The oil market is failing to price in geopolitical risks (like Venezuela actions) or the tightening monetary conditions, as evidenced by low WTI futures price around $57/barrel and a flat futures curve. ### Sponsor & Closing - Video sponsored by Monetary Metals, which offers a yield on gold; speaker thanks members and subscribers. ![Screenshot at 00:04: The speaker introduces the topic by noting consistent weakness in Treasury yields and energy prices.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/voH0hj8L0II/00-00-04.jpg) ![Screenshot at 00:29: A graphic comparing the current Eurodollar environment to a black hole, symbolizing a collapse.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/voH0hj8L0II/00-00-29.jpg) ![Screenshot at 00:32: Quote from Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics stating the economy is 'pretty much on the edge' of recession, juxtaposed with a Lego character saying 'Everything is Awesome!'](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/voH0hj8L0II/00-00-32.jpg) ![Screenshot at 01:00: Chart showing NYMEX Gasoline Futures prices falling to near $1.70/gallon by early 2026, marking the lowest point since 2019.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/voH0hj8L0II/00-01-00.jpg) ![Screenshot at 02:25: Gold Price chart showing a significant acceleration in price gains throughout 2024 and 2025, peaking near $4,500/ounce, which the speaker attributes to deflationary forces and liquidations.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/voH0hj8L0II/00-02-25.jpg)