利率维持现状对交易量和房价的影响？“续约冲击”对市场的影响？2025年地产市场总体表现如何？（每月锐评第三期）

Quick Overview

If interest rates remain steady, transaction volumes will slowly recover, and prices will generally hold steady with minor regional declines, but the primary market concern shifts to renewing mortgages, especially for those who took out variable-rate mortgages in 2021, which could see monthly payments increase by 40% upon renewal, potentially forcing some to sell and increasing forced sales, although the overall impact on systemic price collapse is unlikely.

Key Points: If Canadian interest rates remain at 2.25% long-term (2026) and the BMO Prime Rate stays at 4.45%, the market is expected to show a 'low stability, differentiated bottoming out' trend. Transaction volumes are expected to recover slowly and improve compared to 2025, driven by original demand buyers (including first-time buyers) gradually entering the market. Property prices are expected to remain generally stable overall, with localized minor declines. The main pressure point is mortgage renewals for variable-rate borrowers from 2021, who face potential monthly payment increases of 40% when renewing their mortgages, potentially leading to more forced sales. The Bank of Canada is projected to maintain the 2.25% rate level for a significant period, possibly cutting rates once or twice in 2026 unless the labor market significantly worsens. The Toronto City Council's proposed expansion of the MLTT (Multiple Listing Tax) to properties over $300,000 is seen by TRREB as having a greater political impact than practical effect, likely cooling the low-end market by reducing transactions and overall municipal tax revenue. The inventory crisis is expected to take time to resolve, with the forecast suggesting that 2025 inventory levels will be significantly higher than in 2024, especially in condos, which could lead to price corrections in those segments.

Context: The video features a market review and commentary session organized by the Chinese Real Estate Brokerage Alliance (CREBA), hosted by Hongwei Wang (58HOME.CA Village Chief) and featuring Wang Hongnan (BMO mortgage expert). They discuss the impact of steady interest rates on the 2025 real estate market, focusing on mortgage renewal shocks and new municipal tax policies affecting Toronto and the surrounding GTA areas.