# The 10 worst stocks of 2025

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1w78NAA6M8
Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/u1w78NAA6M8
Generated: 2025-12-05T02:33:50.16+00:00

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## Quick Overview

The video analyzes the 10 worst-performing stocks of 2025 based on a hypothetical list, highlighting that investor behavior during capex booms—specifically the AI boom—often mirrors past bubbles like the railway and internet booms, leading to asset price peaks before investment declines and subsequent market sentiment shifts.

**Key Points:**
- The video reviews a list of the "10 Worst Stocks of 2025," starting with Fiserv (FISV, down 67% YTD) and The Trade Desk (TTD, down 66% YTD).
- The speaker notes that Lululemon Athletica (LULU, down 51% YTD) is facing an identity crisis due to a conflict between the founder's vision (Super Girl focus) and the CEO's vision (Mindful Athlete focus).
- The analysis draws five lessons from historical capex booms (Railway, Electrification, Internet, Oil), noting that current AI spending patterns follow a similar S-shaped adoption curve, suggesting a peak in capex spending may be near.
- Lesson #3 highlights that debt is now an increasingly important source of financing for AI capex, citing Meta's $27B data center financing deal and Oracle tapping the bond market for $18B.
- Lesson #4 warns that asset prices peaked before investment declined in past booms, suggesting current AI stock valuations might be premature as capex rolls over.
- The speaker is personally shifting his portfolio to be more defensive, advising viewers to put product/brand back at the center, empower creative leadership, and stop chasing Wall Street at the expense of customers (Lululemon's alleged mistake).
- The presenter also mentions that he is personally avoiding apparel companies like Deckers (DECK, down 54% YTD) due to perceived quality issues and competition from Hoka, and is staying away from Fintech (Fiserv) due to intense competition.

![Screenshot at 15:44: A slide from the linked BCA Research report showing the historical pattern of capital expenditure booms turning into busts, highlighting that asset prices often peak before investment actually declines.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/u1w78NAA6M8/00-15-44.png)

**Context:** The presenter is reviewing a hypothetical list titled "The 10 Worst Stocks of 2025," which appears to be derived from an analysis of S&P 500 companies that have performed the hardest year-to-date. The discussion centers on applying lessons learned from historical capital expenditure (capex) booms—such as the railway, electrification, internet, and oil booms—to the current Artificial Intelligence (AI) boom, emphasizing that past booms often end in busts when investment peaks before actual technology adoption plateaus.

## Detailed Analysis

The video reviews the '10 Worst Stocks of 2025,' identifying several companies that have significantly underperformed, including Fiserv (down 67% YTD), The Trade Desk (down 66% YTD), and Deckers Outdoor Corp (down 54% YTD). The presenter focuses on extracting lessons from historical capex booms (railway, electrification, internet, oil) to understand the current AI capex boom, noting that AI spending is following a similar S-shaped adoption curve, which historically suggests a peak in investment spending before a slowdown. Lesson #3 highlights a shift where debt is increasingly used to fund AI capex, evidenced by Meta's recent $27B data center financing deal and Oracle tapping the bond market for $18B. Lesson #4 warns that asset prices often peak before investment actually declines, suggesting current AI stock valuations might be overly optimistic. The presenter concludes by stating he is shifting his personal portfolio to be more defensive, advocating for returning focus to core product/brand strength (as suggested in Lululemon's founder's critique) and avoiding companies overly reliant on debt or facing intense competition, as seen with apparel brands like Deckers and Lululemon.

### Worst Performing Stocks

- Fiserv (FISV) down 67% YTD
- The Trade Desk (TTD) down 66% YTD
- Deckers Brands (DECK) down 54% YTD
- Lululemon (LULU) down 51% YTD
- Molina Healthcare (MOH) down 49% YTD

### Lululemon's Conflict

- Founder Chip Wilson blames the CEO for losing the company's identity, contrasting Wilson's 'Super Girl' focus with the CEO's 'Mindful Athlete' focus.

### Historical Capex Lessons

- The analysis draws five lessons from past capex booms (Railway, Electrification, Internet, Oil), noting that asset prices typically peak before investment declines and that adoption rates follow an S-curve.

### AI Capex & Debt

- AI-related capex accounts for about 5% of US GDP and is growing rapidly; debt is increasingly used to finance this spending, exemplified by Meta's $27B data center financing deal and Oracle tapping the bond market for $18B.

### Competition & Quality Concerns

- The speaker expresses personal concerns about apparel brands like Deckers (due to Hoka competition) and Lululemon (due to quality issues) and avoids Fintech (Fiserv) due to intense competition.

### Investor Action

- The speaker is shifting his portfolio to be more defensive, focusing on core product strength and avoiding chasing Wall Street trends, citing the historical pattern where asset prices decline after capex peaks.

![Screenshot at 00:01: A list showing some of the worst-performing stocks in 2025, including Fiserv and Trade Desk, with significant year-to-date declines.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/u1w78NAA6M8/00-00-01.png)
![Screenshot at 00:23: A Bloomberg graphic illustrating the complex financial ties and market value among major AI players like Nvidia and OpenAI.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/u1w78NAA6M8/00-00-23.png)
![Screenshot at 00:41: The Flank platform showing FactSet's financial performance, where revenue is growing but the speaker notes the stock is down 41% YTD.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/u1w78NAA6M8/00-00-41.png)
![Screenshot at 01:29: The S&P Global \(SPGI\) overview graph showing a general upward trend in stock price over the last couple of years.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/u1w78NAA6M8/00-01-29.png)
![Screenshot at 03:04: A Fortune article headline stating, 'Chipotle CEO: Our portion sizes aren't getting smaller—but you can get more food with a special look,' referencing the issue of portion control.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/u1w78NAA6M8/00-03-04.png)