# The Broken China Dream: How to Reform Revived Totalitarianism | Hoover Institution Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpHIjDJq_Es Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/tpHIjDJq_Es Generated: 2026-02-10T23:03:22.848+00:00 --- ## Quick Overview China has returned to a form of totalitarianism under Xi Jinping, a revival made possible because Deng Xiaoping's post-1980s reforms preserved fundamental totalitarian institutions while only suspending totalitarian practices like mass terror and personality cults, creating weak guardrails that Xi dismantled. **Key Points:** - Professor Minshin Pi identifies three distinct phases in post-1949 China: the turbulent 1980s; the post-Tiananmen period focused on economic performance-based legitimacy (1992-2012); and the current 'new Stalinist new totalitarian period' starting with Xi Jinping's rise in late 2012. - Pi argues China is now closer to totalitarianism than authoritarianism, citing evidence like the crackdown in Hong Kong, personality cults, state terror exemplified by Xinjiang concentration camps, and high-tech surveillance, comparing current purges to Cultural Revolution style purges. - The institutionalizations of the 1980s, aimed at restoring collective leadership and making elite politics predictable, were incomplete and ineffective, lacking enforcement mechanisms for prohibitions against personality cults and violations of collective leadership. - Deng Xiaoping preserved the underlying totalitarian institutions, including the Communist Party's monopoly of power and coercion, which allowed totalitarian practices to be restored quickly when Xi Jinping 'pushed the on switch' after 2012. - Economic development did not lead to democracy because the precondition for transition—reformers inside the regime—was absent, especially after the party studied the Soviet collapse and prioritized preventing internal reformers and increasing coercive capacity. - While economic development failed to democratize the political system, it transformed Chinese society, evidenced by figures like activist Xu Zhiyong, who thrived during the post-Deng era but was jailed for 15 years under Xi for denouncing COVID-19 handling. - If Xi Jinping exits the political scene leaving China in a 'horrible state,' the resulting self-destructive regime behavior could mandate dramatic changes, presenting a window of opportunity similar to the post-Mao period. **Context:** The lecture features Professor Minshin Pi, an expert in Chinese politics and governance, presenting his latest work, "The Broken China Dream: How Reform Revived Totalitarianism," at the Hoover Institution's US-China and the World Speaker Series, dedicating the book to his mentor, Larry Diamond. Pi contrasts Xi Jinping's vision of a China ruled by one party forever with the dream of a prosperous, free, and normal country, framing his analysis around three historical phases of post-1949 China. ## Detailed Analysis Professor Pi outlines China's political trajectory in three phases: the possibilities of the 1980s ending with Tiananmen; the Deng Xiaoping era (post-1992) characterized by economic performance legitimacy and stable elite politics; and the return to a 'new totalitarian period' under Xi Jinping. Pi contends that despite surface ruptures, the Xi era is connected to the 1980s because the initial reforms failed to dismantle core totalitarian institutions; instead, they suspended practices like mass terror while keeping the machinery of coercion intact. Pi labels the current system as closer to totalitarianism than authoritarianism, pointing to the personality cult and state terror. The guardrails Deng and his colleagues implemented against dictatorship—such as intended age and term limits—were weak because they lacked enforcement mechanisms and Deng opposed broader societal democracy. Furthermore, Deng's survival strategy, 'new authoritarianism,' fostered endemic corruption, which Xi used to eliminate rivals. Pi notes that the CCP learned from the Soviet collapse to prevent internal reformers from emerging and systematically increased its coercive capacity, as seen in the swift crushing of Falun Gong in 1999. While Pi agrees that increased societal wealth supports a successful transition if elites decide to change, he emphasizes that change must come from within the regime, believing that if Xi leaves China in a disastrous state, the resulting shock could create a new opportunity for dramatic political change, similar to the hope following Mao's death. ### Phases of Post-1949 China - The turbulent 1980s marked by internal division and liberalization - The post-Tiananmen economic miracle based on performance legitimacy (1992-2012) - The revival of totalitarianism under Xi Jinping since 2012 ### Totalitarianism vs. Authoritarianism - China fits most totalitarian checkboxes (leader, terror, purges, coercive control) but falls short in economy and ideology, placing it around a 7 on a 1-10 totalitarian scale ### Institutional Weaknesses of the Deng Era - Reforms in the 1980s introduced incomplete institutionalization, notably lacking explicit term limits for Politburo members and having no enforcement mechanisms for rules against personality cults ### Factors Paving Return to Totalitarianism - Deng preserved underlying totalitarian institutions (coercion, party monopoly) while suspending practices; corruption endemic to the system provided Xi the means to quickly purge rivals ### The Failure of Economic Modernization to Democratize - The critical precondition for transition is reformers within the regime, which the CCP actively prevented by studying the Soviet collapse and increasing coercive capacity ### Societal Transformation vs. Political Stagnation - Economic development changed society, fostering citizen journalism and legal challenges (e.g., Xu Zhiyong's early success), but these positive changes occurred at the periphery of the unchanged political system ### Prospects for Future Change - The party swings wildly based on regime self-destruction; if Xi leaves China in a horrible state, dramatic change is likely, as past dependence makes incremental change hard but rupture more likely