Can We 'Solve' Sports?

Quick Overview

The core argument is that while scientific optimization and data analysis dramatically improve individual team or player performance in sports, this pursuit of perfection often removes the "unnecessary obstacles" that define a game, ultimately making the sport less fun and aesthetically pleasing for spectators, leading to constant rule changes to reintroduce complexity and drama.

Key Points: Defensive shifts in baseball, driven by statistical data showing a player's tendency for one of the "three true outcomes" (strikeout, walk, home run), increased from 3,323 times in 2010 to 33,218 times by 2017, making the game less exciting. The optimization trend in sports risks diminishing athleticism; Michael Lewis noted that players optimized for hitting home runs looked "squidgy around the edges" because running speed or agility became less relevant. In Olympic running, world records are estimated to be at 99% of humanity's physiological frontier, with improvements now measured in minuscule fractions like 0.05%, shifting focus to subtle factors like air pressure or swimsuit regulations. Formula 1 cars optimized for downforce create 'dirty air'—turbulence that reduces the following car's downforce by 20% to 60% in corners, hindering overtaking, which regulators attempt to counteract with rule changes like the 2026 artificial engine boost for trailing cars. In soccer, data analysis pioneered by Ian Graham at Liverpool shifted focus from aesthetics to effectiveness, identifying undervalued players like Joel Matip, who looked clumsy but advanced the ball effectively, leading to fewer wild punts and mavericks in play. Goalkeepers in soccer, despite statistics showing standing still stops penalties 33% of the time versus 13% when diving, dive 94% of the time due to the psychological 'action bias' to avoid appearing lazy. Bernard Suits defines a game as a "voluntary attempt to overcome unnecessary obstacles," suggesting that removing these obstacles through optimization, like banning reverse swing in cricket or over-simplifying baseball strategy, reduces the fun inherent in the competition.