# The Global Commodity War Has Started... Gold’s Biggest Bull Market in 50 Years w/ Nicky Shiels Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ryBBVgwUmOI Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/ryBBVgwUmOI Generated: 2026-03-10T15:03:47.088+00:00 --- ## Quick Overview Nicky Shiels, Head of Research and Metal Strategy at MKS PAMP, believes gold is currently in the mid-cycle of a cycle that began in the 1970s, driven by geopolitical uncertainty, inflation, and central bank policy, suggesting that while silver's performance lags, gold is poised for a significant bull market, potentially reaching $2,400 to $2,500 per ounce. **Key Points:** - Nicky Shiels forecasts gold could reach $2,400 to $2,500 per ounce if current geopolitical and policy factors persist. - Shiels views the current market as mid-cycle for the commodity, similar to trends starting in the 1970s. - Key drivers for precious metals are geopolitical uncertainty (Russia/Ukraine, China/Taiwan), inflation, and US policy creating fiscal uncertainty. - Silver is currently lagging gold, trading at a discount, but gold is acting as a better short-term hedge against volatility. - The market currently exhibits speculative positioning, with retail investors overinvested and sentiment being extremely bullish. - Shiels notes that Western monetary policy, particularly US actions, is perceived as decades behind industrial supply constraints, creating potential for future volatility. - A key difference this cycle is the expectation that central banks might not aggressively raise rates, unlike past tightening cycles. ![Screenshot at 00:00: John Gillen hosts Nicky Shiels of MKS PAMP to discuss current market conditions and forecasts for precious metals amid geopolitical uncertainty.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/ryBBVgwUmOI/00-00-00.jpg) **Context:** The Milk Road Macro podcast hosted John Gillen interviewing Nicky Shiels, Head of Research and Metal Strategy at MKS PAMP, a leading Swiss precious metals firm. The conversation focused on the current state and future forecasts for precious metals, particularly gold and silver, analyzing macro factors like geopolitical events, inflation, and central bank reactions that influence their prices. ## Detailed Analysis Nicky Shiels argues that the current precious metals market is in the mid-cycle phase of a longer-term cycle originating in the 1970s, driven by several key factors. The primary drivers include geopolitical uncertainty, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions involving China and Taiwan, which increase the need for safe-haven assets. Inflationary pressures, coupled with US policy creating fiscal uncertainty and potentially leading to fiscal dominance, also support precious metals. Shiels notes that while gold is acting as a more effective short-term hedge against volatility than silver, silver is currently lagging gold, trading at a discount historically. She highlights that speculative positioning shows retail investors are overinvested and sentiment is extremely bullish. However, Shiels suggests that Western monetary policy, particularly in the US, appears behind the curve concerning industrial supply constraints, which could lead to higher inflation if not addressed. She maintains a positive outlook for gold, suggesting a target of $2,400 to $2,500 per ounce if current conditions persist. She also points out that silver's industrial demand (like from EVs) and geopolitical factors are creating a dual narrative, but gold's historical performance as a hedge makes it the preferred short-term play. Shiels advises investors to be nimble and aware of potential policy shifts that could rapidly change market narratives. ### Gold Market Analysis - Gold is currently mid-cycle, driven by geopolitical uncertainty and inflation; Shiels forecasts a potential high of $2,400-$2,500/ounce. ### Silver Performance - Silver is lagging gold and trading at a historical discount, though industrial demand (EVs, etc.) provides a different structural support. ### Key Macro Drivers - Geopolitical tensions (Russia/Ukraine, China/Taiwan), persistent inflation, and US fiscal policy uncertainty are major factors supporting precious metals. ### Market Sentiment & Positioning - Sentiment is extremely bullish, with retail investors overinvested, which could lead to temporary pullbacks, though speculators are starting to shift positioning. ### Policy Lag - Western central bank policy is perceived as lagging behind industrial supply constraints and geopolitical factors, suggesting persistent inflationary pressure. ### Historical Context - The current cycle shares similarities with the 1970s, but the current environment features a flatter, longer-term gold price trajectory compared to historical boom/bust cycles. ### Advice for Investors - Be nimble, aware of policy shifts, and recognize that while gold is the better short-term hedge, the overall environment requires careful positioning. ![Screenshot at 00:00: John Gillen hosts Nicky Shiels of MKS PAMP to discuss current market conditions and forecasts for precious metals amid geopolitical uncertainty.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/ryBBVgwUmOI/00-00-00.jpg) ![Screenshot at 07:27: Nicky Shiels details three main factors driving the current market: economic/financial shock, geopolitical uncertainty, and broad-based industrial demand weakening.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/ryBBVgwUmOI/00-07-27.jpg) ![Screenshot at 16:34: Promotional graphic highlighting Summ's tax features: finds deductions, reconciles massive transaction histories, and generates IRS-ready reports.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/ryBBVgwUmOI/00-16-34.jpg) ![Screenshot at 34:50: Outro graphic featuring the Milk Road mascot spinning the globe on its finger, promoting MilkRoad.com/SUMM for a 20% discount.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/ryBBVgwUmOI/00-34-50.jpg)