# The Right Side of History with Tyler Cowen Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmVCEn8yRQg Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/rmVCEn8yRQg Generated: 2026-01-30T23:33:16.212+00:00 --- ## Quick Overview The discussion concludes that Donald Trump's 'Trumpism' is a form of globalism, not isolationism, despite his rhetoric against institutions like Davos, while the recent aggressive enforcement actions by ICE in Minnesota backfired politically by shifting public opinion against tough immigration policies, forcing Trump to walk back the aggressive stance. **Key Points:** - Tyler Cowen argues that Donald Trump is 'fairly globalist' due to his global business empire and obsession with the US and China ruling the world, making his position compatible with Neil Ferguson's observation of Trump dominating global elites. - The globalists at Davos view Trump as their sworn enemy, hating his contempt for institutions like the Paris climate accord and his desire to tear up the 'liberal international order,' but high tariffs have only caused a 'slight reconfiguration' of trading networks, not ended globalization. - Cowen suggests that European leaders engage with Trump as a villain to legitimize their weak governments, citing Mark Carney's speech as an example where the US commitment guarantees Canada's safety regardless of rhetoric. - HR McMaster argues that Trump is 'calling the Europeans bluff' regarding strategic autonomy, forcing them to realize they must increase defense spending because the transatlantic alliance risks vanishing, noting Biden's tenure was worse for relations than Trump's in some aspects. - The aggressive ICE enforcement strategy in Minneapolis, intended to expose a nexus between the Democratic Party and the 'immigration political economy,' backfired, with two shootings leading to two-thirds of voters saying the first death was unjustified and 46% of voters saying ICE should be abolished. - Cowen diagnoses the current ideological landscape as a 'great stagnation in ideology,' where the left resorts to democratic socialism and the right to nationalist crony capitalism, reflecting ideas from a century ago. - The panelists agree that AI will displace many high-paid workers in professions like law and consulting, leading those displaced individuals—likely those with useless college degrees—to 'hate that' they will not automatically be 'masters of the universe,' even if real wages rise overall. **Context:** The Hoover Institution broadcast 'Goodfellows' on January 29th, 2026, moderated by Bill Whan, convened historian Sir Neil Ferguson, economist John Cochran, and former National Security Advisor HR McMaster to discuss geopolitics, economics, and politics with guest Tyler Cowen, Professor of Economics at George Mason University, focusing initially on the tension between Trumpism and globalism, and later shifting to the political fallout from aggressive ICE actions in Minnesota. ## Detailed Analysis The conversation established that Trumpism functions as a different form of globalism rather than isolationism, as Trump's actions reconfigure, but do not stop, international trade networks, a point supported by analysis showing minimal disruption despite high tariffs. Panelists also explored the fragility of the liberal international order, noting that European leaders often use Trump as a necessary villain to bolster domestic legitimacy. HR McMaster brought a national security angle, suggesting Trump's antagonism forces Europe to confront its lack of strategic autonomy, though he also criticizes Trump for undermining alliance trust. Cowen characterized Trump's behavior as emotionally dysfunctional bullying that often backfires internationally. The discussion then pivoted sharply to domestic issues, specifically the backlash against the Trump administration's aggressive ICE deportations in Minneapolis, which resulted in two protester shootings; Sir Neil Ferguson detailed how this backfired by shifting the narrative from immigrant scams to Trump's supposed fascism, causing a major liability for the administration. Economically, the group lamented the 'great stagnation in ideology,' noting the return to 20th-century concepts like democratic socialism and mercantilism, and predicted significant social upheaval as AI automates elite jobs, leading highly educated but displaced workers to resent earning a lower, though still comfortable, wage. ### Globalism vs. Trumpism - Trump is globally focused but antagonistic, functioning as a 'pantomime villain' at Davos - Tariffs caused only minor reconfiguration of global trading networks, not an end to globalization - European leaders exploit Trump as a villain for domestic political gain. ### European Strategic Autonomy and Security - Trump's pressure calls the European bluff on strategic autonomy, forcing them to consider defense spending - Europe cannot achieve true strategic autonomy due to reliance on US nuclear deterrence and logistical infrastructure - The bullying negotiating tactic risks long-term damage to alliances. ### The Minnesota ICE Backlash - Aggressive ICE tactics backfired spectacularly after two protesters were shot, causing a major crisis for the administration - Polling showed a major shift, with 46% of voters saying ICE should be abolished, forcing Trump to walk back the strategy. ### Ideological Landscape - The current political discourse is unoriginal, resembling a century ago with democratic socialism on the left and nationalist crony capitalism on the right - Cowen suggests the demand for government intervention stems from wanting government to solve problems it is incapable of solving, like housing costs. ### AI and the Future Workforce - AI will lead to fewer high-paid lawyers, consultants, and finance workers, which Cowen views as positive for poorer people who benefit from cheaper services - Displaced elite workers will likely hate earning less than their parents' generation, even if real wages rise overall.