قانون الفجوة مراجعة شاملة من دون شعبوية ما قبل الانتخابات

Quick Overview

The speaker critiques the proposed "Gap Law" (قانون الفجوة) for financial sector restructuring and deposit recovery as lacking a clear economic vision, failing to specify crucial figures, and preserving the status quo that caused the crisis, particularly by solidifying the dollarized economy at an uncompetitive exchange rate while heavily socializing losses onto taxpayers.

Key Points: The proposed law, officially named 'Regulating the Financial Sector, Financial Regularization, and Deposit Recovery,' is presented as the second attempt at an overhaul, unlike claims by officials that it is the first (the 2020 Lazar plan was the first). The core change between this version and the previous one is the increased burden placed on banks and shareholders due to the intervention of the IMF. The plan proposes returning $100,000 to small depositors over four years, while larger depositors wait 10, 15, or 20 years, receiving 2% interest annually starting in the fifth year. A major technical flaw cited is the absence of concrete figures, leaving the calculation of the total financial gap ($85 billion estimated by officials) open to manipulation, and the plan allegedly aims to write off $35 billion through dubious means. Political parties like the Lebanese Forces and the Free Patriotic Movement object because the law fails to return deposits in the 'actual sense,' lacks clear figures, and does not define responsibilities, yet they failed to propose alternatives during the six years since the crisis began. The speaker argues the plan solidifies the dollarized economy at the current rate (89,500 LBP/USD), killing local production potential, and shifts the majority of the loss (estimated 70-75%) onto the state/taxpayers, while banks contribute minimally. The law ignores the functional nature of deposits, lumping productive accounts with speculative ones, and fails to propose a new banking law or address the need to separate investment banks from consumer/commercial banks.