# Thrive Raises New $10B Fund | OpenAI Buys OpenClaw | Stripe at $140B: Is Adyen Wildly Undervalued?

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nVfDfse13es
Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/nVfDfse13es
Generated: 2026-02-19T16:01:14.175+00:00

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## Quick Overview

Wall Street and capital markets have overwhelmingly prioritized investments in Artificial Intelligence, exemplified by Anthropic's massive $30 billion funding round at a $380 billion post-money valuation and Thrive's new $10 billion fund, causing a significant negative sentiment and valuation depression for traditional Software as a Service (SaaS) companies.

**Key Points:**
- Anthropic raised $30 billion at a $380 billion post-money valuation, upscaling from an initial $10 billion target, which speakers noted makes any fund without an allocation to Anthropic uninteresting to 98% of venture capital.
- The current investment climate shows massive capital supply chasing a small, concentrated number of AI companies, as Rory noted, "This is the only play in venture" when public software stocks are down significantly.
- Anthropic demonstrates unprecedented growth, with one speaker stating, "You've never seen a company grow 10x in gap revenue and run rate year on year for 3 years" at this scale, achieving what is described as "escape velocity."
- The gravitational pull of AI investment has caused a collapse in sentiment for older SaaS companies, with one speaker observing that even 70% growth is not enough for some, leading to valuations where some trade at eight or nine times cash flow.
- Corporate America has decided to "will this into existence" by making large AI bets, leading to one to two years of mega AI budgets regardless of immediate ROI, driven by the current corporate agenda item of making a big AI play.
- Figma, despite strong current numbers (valued around 10 times revenues), is critically vulnerable because AI tools like Replet and Lovable have already stolen $300-$400 million in potential bookings from their core product prototyping use case since July/September.
- The pace of AI disruption is not uniform; areas closer to coding and customer support see faster eating, whereas sectors like accounting software (debits/credits/UI) are considered less adjacent to immediate AI overthrow.

**Context:** The discussion centers on the massive capital flow into Artificial Intelligence companies, specifically highlighting Anthropic's recent $30 billion funding round and Thrive's new $10 billion fund, set against the backdrop of a struggling public SaaS market. Key figures like Rory Driscoll and Jason Lanin analyze how this AI investment frenzy is creating a bifurcated market where only companies demonstrating 'escape velocity' attract capital, while established SaaS businesses face severe negative sentiment and valuation compression.

## Detailed Analysis

The central theme is the overwhelming Wall Street and venture capital focus on AI, treating it as the singular viable investment thesis, evidenced by Anthropic's funding at $380 billion post-money, which forces multi-stage funds to secure small stakes just to remain relevant. Anthropic's growth is characterized as unprecedented, achieving 10x revenue growth year-over-year for three years, suggesting it has reached 'escape velocity' while everything else is pulled down by a 'gravity well.' This AI hype has caused a 'SAS apocalypse' sentiment, where traditional software companies, even those with solid growth, are punished because capital has fallen out of love with them. Enterprises are actively deciding to invest heavily in AI implementation, anticipating labor efficiency savings, which will drive mega AI budgets for the next one to two years irrespective of immediate ROI. However, this narrative dominance creates risks: AI companies are capital-intensive, resembling semiconductor firms rather than traditional software, and there is concern about overinvestment leading to a later retrenchment. For existing SaaS, the threat is existential; for example, Figma, despite its current strength, is criticized for missing out on owning the AI-driven product prototyping market now being captured by tools like Replet and Lovable, demonstrating that even highly valued companies are vulnerable if they are slow to adapt to AI adjacency.

### AI Funding Dominance

- Anthropic raised $30B at $380B post-money, making it the only play in venture capital currently
- Thrive closed a $10B fund, confirming capital's singular bet on AI
- This contrasts sharply with public software stocks being down over 20% this year.

### The Gravity Well Effect on SaaS

- Wall Street fell out of love with SAS to focus on AI
- Companies like Atlassian (requiring $6B+ growth) and Non are being pulled down by a 'gravity well'
- SAS companies are trading at low multiples, sometimes eight or nine times cash flow, signaling deep market pessimism.

### Anthropic's Unprecedented Performance

- The company has achieved 3 years of 10x gap revenue growth year-over-year, a feat described as unprecedented across early Microsoft, Google, and Compaq
- This growth rate signifies 'escape velocity' compared to competitors.

### Enterprise AI Adoption

- Corporate America has decided to 'will this into existence,' leading to one to two years of mega AI spending regardless of immediate ROI
- This momentum trade is driven by the belief that AI will unlock massive labor and efficiency savings.

### Disruption Velocity and Vulnerability

- The pace of disruption is uneven; areas close to code and support (like SDR tools, where one new agent booked a six-figure deal on day one) face faster change
- Figma is vulnerable because it missed owning the AI-adjacent prototyping market captured by Lovable and Replet, despite its strong current metrics.

### Valuation Shift

- The market has moved from valuing companies based on narrative lift to pure valuation metrics (the 'weighing machine')
- Companies not benefiting from the AI narrative, like older horizontal SaaS, face continuous decline even if current numbers are decent, as enterprises plan headcount reductions.