# 房地产下跌的四个阶段，明年会是“主跌阶段”？如果没有”小阳春“，2026房市将是单边下跌行情？今年平均房价要下跌6%-10%，condo将达到两位数？真正健康的市场不是"涨"而是"跌"出来的？ Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lxziQ5nJPPw Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/lxziQ5nJPPw Generated: 2026-01-12T00:33:00.422+00:00 --- ## Quick Overview The panelists predict that while the market may not experience a single, sharp drop in 2025, the overall trend will likely be a gradual, multi-stage decline, suggesting that a sustained "small spring rally" is unlikely, leading to a potential single-sided downturn scenario extending into 2026 if current economic levers remain unchanged. **Key Points:** - One panelist (Lin Yi Fei) suggests that the market decline over the next 3-5 years will not be a single sharp drop but a cyclical pattern, contrasting with the previous rapid gains seen in cryptocurrency investments. - The consensus is that the market correction is likely to continue, with one prediction suggesting an average price drop of 6% to 10% next year, potentially pushing condo price declines into the double digits. - The concept of a "truly healthy market" is defined not by continuous growth but by a period of necessary correction or 'falling out' to establish a sustainable base. - Interest rates are currently high (around 5%-7%), which is expected to continue constraining the market, particularly affecting first-time buyers and those looking for high-leverage investments. - The panel discussed that aggressive stimulus (like large government spending) could inflate asset prices (e.g., condos) artificially, leading to an unstable 'bubble' rather than genuine economic health. - Mark Xiao noted that in Toronto, the yield on investment properties (like condos) is significantly higher than in the US, but the risk of price collapse is real for those who fail to manage cash flow adequately. - The event, hosted by 58home.ca, focused on analyzing the 'Opportunities and Challenges of the Down Cycle' in the 2025 Canadian real estate market. ![Screenshot at 00:08: The title slide sets the theme for the discussion: the "2025 Winter Season Forum" on Canadian Real Estate, focusing on "Opportunities and Challenges of the Down Cycle."](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/lxziQ5nJPPw/00-00-08.jpg) **Context:** This video captures a segment of the "2025 Canadian Real Estate Winter Forum" organized by 58home.ca, focusing on the future trajectory of the Canadian property market during a projected downturn. The discussion features a moderator, Albert Wang, and three industry experts: Lin Yi Fei, Victoria Zhang, and Mark Xiao, all offering their perspectives on market predictions, investment strategies, and the impact of macroeconomic factors like interest rates and global capital flows. ## Detailed Analysis The panel convened to analyze the Canadian real estate market's trajectory, specifically addressing predictions for 2025 and beyond, centered around the theme of the 'Down Cycle.' Albert Wang initiated the discussion by asking about the next 3-5 years for the market. Lin Yi Fei argued that the market correction will not be a sudden crash but a cyclical event, contrasting it with rapid crypto gains; he noted that from 2018 to 2019, Toronto's rate of return was high, but the current environment is different. Victoria Zhang focused on the risk aversion of clients, noting that many are wary of investing heavily in assets like real estate when short-term returns favor liquid assets like crypto, especially given current high interest rates (5%-7%). She emphasized that long-term, population growth will still support property prices, but short-term cash flow management is crucial. Mark Xiao provided concrete historical examples, noting that in 2018-2019, some properties saw 30% appreciation in a short period, but he cautioned that the current environment, with high interest rates and potential economic contraction (GDP growth linked to M2 money supply), suggests a downward trend is more probable. He specifically mentioned that Canada's debt-to-GDP ratio and interest rates suggest a correction is needed, contrasting it with the US market where real estate price drops are less pronounced due to different economic drivers. He concluded that for investors, the key is to be conservative and that the truly healthy market is one that 'falls out' rather than constantly inflates. ### Market Outlook (2025-2026) - Market will not have a sharp drop but a multi-stage, gradual decline - Small spring rallies are unlikely without major stimulus - Average price drop predicted at 6%-10% next year, with condos potentially seeing double-digit declines. ### Investment Strategy Discussion - Lin Yi Fei stresses avoiding highly leveraged positions; Victoria Zhang highlights client risk aversion favoring liquid assets over property due to high interest rates (5-7%); Mark Xiao advocates for conservative investment focusing on yield over rapid appreciation. ### Economic Indicators & Comparison - Mark Xiao points out that Canada's debt-to-GDP ratio and high interest rates necessitate a correction, unlike the US market which exhibits different dynamics. ### The Role of Government/Stimulus - Panelists agree that massive government stimulus, while potentially propping up asset prices temporarily, leads to artificial inflation and is not indicative of a 'truly healthy market.' ### Client Behavior - Victoria Zhang observes that many clients are hesitant to commit large sums to real estate due to high borrowing costs, preferring short-term financial instruments. ### Company Promotion (58Home.ca) - The video transitions to showcase 58Home.ca's decade of service providing home services and group-buying discounts to over 100,000 Chinese families in Canada, emphasizing quality control and promoting their multi-platform online/offline presence. ![Screenshot at 00:04: The opening title screen for the "2025 Canadian Real Estate Winter Forum" sets a dramatic, cold-weather theme against a stylized city skyline, signaling the focus on market challenges.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/lxziQ5nJPPw/00-00-04.jpg) ![Screenshot at 00:12: The four panelists, including moderator Albert Wang \(left\) and speakers Lin Yi Fei, Victoria Zhang, and Mark Xiao, seated on stage for the discussion.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/lxziQ5nJPPw/00-00-12.jpg) ![Screenshot at 00:58: Panelist Lin Yi Fei elaborates on his view that market cycles, like those seen in finance, apply to real estate, implying that the current downturn is part of a predictable pattern.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/lxziQ5nJPPw/00-00-58.jpg) ![Screenshot at 03:17: Victoria Zhang discusses client risk preference, contrasting short-term gains in finance with long-term stability sought in real estate investments.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/lxziQ5nJPPw/00-03-17.jpg) ![Screenshot at 17:51: A transition scene shows a worker handling tools and contracts, visually linking the abstract economic discussion back to the tangible reality of home renovation and services provided by the sponsoring company, 58Home.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/lxziQ5nJPPw/00-17-51.jpg)