# More farm troubles: Global fertilizer markets seize up after China, Russia keep theirs at home Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0QVsZbRxb8 Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/j0QVsZbRxb8 Generated: 2025-12-03T14:39:20.355+00:00 --- ## Quick Overview Global fertilizer markets are seizing up due to supply constraints caused by China restricting exports of urea and DAP, and the EU imposing tariffs on Russian and Belarusian fertilizer imports, leading to rising prices and increased production costs for farmers worldwide, particularly impacting US farmers who rely on imports for 25% of their fertilizer needs. **Key Points:** - China halted exports of urea and DAP in October, plunging nitrogen fertilizer exports by over 90% in 2024, as Beijing prioritizes securing domestic supply for its expanding electric vehicle battery sector (phosphate) and agricultural needs. - The US agricultural sector faces a significant challenge as fertilizer inputs account for 18% of soybean production costs and around 35% of wheat and corn costs, with US domestic supply only covering 75% of potash needs and less for nitrogen and phosphate. - The World Bank noted that US phosphate exports have also been curbed by China to secure inputs for lithium iron phosphate batteries. - The EU imposed economic sanctions and new tariffs on fertilizer imports from Russia and Belarus in July, which together account for 25% of the bloc's fertilizer imports, forcing European farmers to seek more expensive suppliers. - Russia, a top exporter of nitrogen, phosphate, and potash, is rerouting fertilizer to markets like Brazil and India, while Ukraine's fertilizer production is severely disrupted by the ongoing conflict. - The World Bank fertilizer price index peaked in 2022 but remains over three times the 2010 level, with phosphate fertilizers leading an increase in prices again, alongside rising costs for other farm expenses like electricity and labor. - US Gulf Coast Di-ammonium Phosphate (DAP) prices reached $764.90/ton for October 2025, significantly higher than a year prior, reflecting global tightening. ![Screenshot at 0:13: Kevin Walmsley introduces the topic by referencing an embedded video thumbnail discussing how US importers are paying high tariffs, setting the stage for the analysis of trade impacts on supply chains.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/j0QVsZbRxb8/00-00-13.png) **Context:** This video from 'Inside China Business' examines the compounding global supply chain crises affecting agricultural inputs, specifically fertilizers, driven by geopolitical actions from China and the European Union. The speaker, Kevin Walmsley in Kunming, China, contrasts the US agricultural situation, which is already facing a trade deficit, with the immediate impact of supply shocks from major exporters like China and Russia/Belarus on global fertilizer availability and pricing, ultimately leading to higher costs for farmers in the US and Europe. ## Detailed Analysis The video argues that global fertilizer markets are seizing up due to supply restrictions from key producers, directly leading to rising costs for farmers, especially in the US and Europe. China has cut fertilizer exports, including urea and DAP, by over 90% in 2024, pivoting to secure domestic supply for its growing EV battery industry (phosphate) and its own agriculture. This is compounded by the EU imposing tariffs on fertilizer imports from Russia and Belarus (which together account for 25% of the bloc's imports), forcing European farmers to find more expensive alternatives. The US agricultural sector, already facing an agricultural trade deficit, is highly exposed, with fertilizer inputs representing 18% of soybean costs and 35% of wheat/corn costs. While US domestic supply covers most needs for potash (97%) and significant portions of nitrogen (82%) and phosphate (87%), the supply disruptions mean US farmers must pay higher prices from domestic suppliers, who are raising prices to meet global demand shifts. Gulf DAP prices demonstrate this trend, rising to $764.90/ton for October 2025, far above the previous year's price, illustrating the pressure of increased production costs across the board, including labor and energy, forcing farmers to plan for continued uncertainty. ### Trade War Impacts - Trade wars exposed reliance on North American/European factories for raw materials inputs from China - Decoupling is not possible at all - High import tariffs lead to tighter supplies and higher prices at home. ### US Agricultural Trade Shift - US is now a food importer facing persistent agricultural trade deficits, a reversal from its historical surplus role - Annual deficits occurred in 2019, 2020 (Trump trade war), and are projected to continue. ### China's Fertilizer Export Controls - China halted urea and DAP exports in October, plunging nitrogen fertilizer exports over 90% in 2024 - Phosphate export curbs are also linked to securing inputs for lithium iron phosphate batteries for EVs - Domestic suppliers are raising prices to meet global demand. ### Fertilizer Price Volatility - World Bank fertilizer price index spiked in 2022, dropped, and is now rising again (index above 150, three times 2010 levels) - Phosphate fertilizers lead the increase, with potash also rising due to trade policy risks. ### European Fertilizer Crisis - EU imposed tariffs on Russian and Belarusian fertilizer imports (25% of bloc's supply) - Russia, a top exporter, is rerouting supply to Brazil and India, while Ukraine's production is disrupted. ### US Input Costs and Farmer Outlook - Fertilizer accounts for 18% of US soybean costs and 35% of wheat/corn costs - Rising costs for fertilizer, electricity, labor, rent, and property taxes strain farm budgets, creating uncertainty for planting decisions. ![Screenshot at 0:13: Kevin Walmsley introduces the topic by referencing an embedded video thumbnail discussing how US importers are paying high tariffs, setting the stage for the analysis of trade impacts on supply chains.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/j0QVsZbRxb8/00-00-13.png) ![Screenshot at 0:40: A headline states "The US Has Never Imported So Much Food," detailing the country is facing persistent agricultural trade deficits, a stark turnaround from its historical role as a food exporter.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/j0QVsZbRxb8/00-00-40.png) ![Screenshot at 1:07: A chart shows that 25% of U.S. fertilizer use was imported in 2024, with high reliance on imports for Potash \(90%\), Nitrogen \(18% from imports\), and Phosphate \(13% from imports\), primarily from Canada and the Middle East.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/j0QVsZbRxb8/00-01-07.png) ![Screenshot at 1:39: A chart displays the World Bank fertilizer price index \(2010=100\), showing a peak in 2022, a dip, and a new upward trend starting in 2024, indicating rising costs.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/j0QVsZbRxb8/00-01-39.png) ![Screenshot at 3:43: A bar chart from the American Farm Bureau Federation illustrates U.S. Farm Income vs. Select Production Expenses, showing fertilizer costs are projected to remain at historically high levels relative to other expenses through 2024.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/j0QVsZbRxb8/00-03-43.png)