The Government Is Engineering a Business Cycle Surge Into 2026 w/ Andreas Steno Larsen

Quick Overview

Andreas Steno Larsen argues that the US administration's geopolitical actions, such as sanctioning Russian energy exports and potentially forcing a rollback of the 2017 tax cuts, are deliberately creating a business cycle surge into 2026 by favoring domestic US production over global supply chains, particularly concerning critical minerals like rare earths and copper, which he believes will benefit US-centric sectors like domestic solar/battery companies.

Key Points: The US administration is engineering a business cycle surge leading up to 2026 by prioritizing domestic over global supply chains, especially for critical minerals. Steno Larsen suggests that the US is deliberately trying to decouple from China and support domestic clean energy/battery sectors. The recent ISM Manufacturing PMI data showed a strong uptick (50.1 in January, the sharpest since 2018) but this is being viewed suspiciously by some due to political maneuvering. The author notes that the current political environment makes the Fed less likely to reverse course on quantitative tightening, despite potential economic strain. The geopolitical conflict is forcing a shift away from relying on global supply chains (like those dominated by China and Russia for rare earths/energy) towards more resilient, domestic/allied supply chains. The speaker is personally heavily invested in rare earth and copper miners, citing their potential outperformance due to this geopolitical realignment.

Context: The video features an interview between John Gillen of Milk Road Macro and guest Andreas Steno Larsen, an economist and financial strategist known for his expertise in macroeconomics, geopolitics, and cryptocurrency. The discussion centers on Larsen's recent analysis suggesting that current US administration policies are intentionally shaping the business cycle to favor domestic industries, particularly those involved in domestic energy and critical mineral supply chains, leading to a potential surge in these sectors by 2026.