🚨Super El Niño UPDATE: Canada's fall and winter forecast | Kyle's Forecasts

The Gist

Canada is heading into a significantly warmer and drier fall and winter due to a developing super El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean. Surface temperature anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific exceed five degrees above normal, while subsurface anomalies approach ten degrees.

Quick Overview

Canada faces a warmer-than-average fall and winter across most of the country, accompanied by drier conditions in the west and potential drought intensification, driven by a historically strong super El Nino in the Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region have already surpassed three degrees above normal by mid-September 2026, breaking historical records going back to 1982. While the overarching pattern points toward mild and dry conditions, localized cold snaps remain possible through winter due to potential disruptions in the polar vortex.

Key Points: Sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific exceed five degrees above normal as of September 2026. Subsurface temperature anomalies in the Pacific ocean approach ten degrees above normal, indicating massive stored heat. Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region have exceeded three degrees above normal, setting a record for mid-September that surpasses historical benchmarks from 1982, 1997, 2015, and 2023. Atmospheric teleconnections driven by the super El Nino are projected to bring warmer-than-normal temperatures south of 60 degrees latitude across Canada for the October through February period. Precipitation forecasts for October through December indicate drier-than-normal conditions across Western Canada, including British Columbia, Alberta, and the Yukon. Current Canadian drought monitors show severe to extreme drought conditions across parts of British Columbia and the Northwest Territories, which face worsening conditions due to expected below-normal precipitation. Historical model analogs based on past super El Nino winters like 1982 to 1983, 1997 to 1998, and 2015 to 2016 suggest a strong Aleutian low and a weakened polar vortex can still produce brief, intense cold air outbreaks.