Can Ukraine retake Crimea? | Max Fisher

The Gist

Ukraine is not attempting to retake Crimea through a direct ground assault, but is instead systematically cutting off Russian supply lines, knocking out air defenses, and choking the peninsula into a contested zone.

Quick Overview

Ukraine has adopted a strategy of making Crimea contested territory rather than launching a direct offensive, successfully cutting off the Kerch Strait bridge and severing the Novorossiya highway through sustained drone and missile strikes. This systematic isolation has created widespread fuel shortages, blackouts, and economic paralysis across the peninsula, forcing Russia on the defensive and eroding its strategic footing. Ultimately, this campaign changes the calculus of the war by giving Ukraine vital leverage and forcing Putin to confront the vulnerability of his prized territorial gains.

Key Points: Twelve years after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, Ukraine has launched a strategic campaign to sever the peninsula from Russian supply lines. A Ukrainian truck bomb heavily damaged the Kerch Strait bridge in 2022, forcing Russia to permanently close it to heavy military vehicles and rely on alternative supply routes. Ukraine has systematically hunted down and destroyed Russian portable radars and air defense systems, such as the Pantsir, using specialized drone tactics. Ukrainian forces have launched up to 20 drone strikes per day along the Novorossiya highway, turning the vital Russian supply route into the highway of death. Over a 10-day period in July 2026, Ukrainian drone attacks sank or disabled 147 Russian ships and oil tankers operating in the Sea of Azov. Widespread blackouts and fuel shortages have plunged Crimea into a prolonged energy crisis, causing thousands of Russian tourists and residents to flee. Commander of Ukraine drone forces Robert Brovdi states that the overarching goal is to deprive the Kremlin of the ability to use Crimea as a springboard for new offensive operations.

Context: Since the 2014 revolution and subsequent Russian annexation, Crimea has served as an unshakeable military stronghold and a crucial logistical hub for Russian forces operating in southern Ukraine. Russia spent billions building the Kerch Strait bridge and developing extensive military infrastructure to integrate the peninsula. For years, international observers assumed Ukraine lacked the capability to challenge Russian control over Crimea, treating its return as an impossibility.