Iran’s New Supreme Leader Is BAD NEWS For Trump

Quick Overview

Eskandar Sadeghi-Boroujerdi argues that the successor to Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is unlikely to be as accommodating to the US and Israel as his father was, especially given the ongoing war and the influence of hardliners, making his succession a potentially destabilizing event for the regime.

Key Points: Donald Trump previously suggested removing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and replacing him with someone more accommodating to American interests in Venezuela (0:00-0:12). Mojtaba Khamenei, the successor, is 55 years old, a mid-ranking cleric who has kept a low profile and never held government office or given public speeches (0:42-0:53). Thousands gathered in Tehran to pledge allegiance to the new ruler, Mojtaba Khamenei, following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (0:37-0:59). Mojtaba Khamenei's father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, wrote a letter in 1979 alleging electoral interference by the US (1:49-2:03, 2:21-2:33). Mojtaba Khamenei is known for being close to the IRGC and security apparatus, suggesting a hardline stance rather than a conciliatory one toward the US/Israel (8:10-8:13, 9:08-9:14). The election process for the Supreme Leader is controlled by the Assembly of Experts, which Mojtaba Khamenei previously served on and was influential within (6:50-7:03). The expert suggests that the war environment makes it more probable that the Supreme Leader will be a hardliner, potentially leading to increased friction with the US and Israel (8:48-9:05, 9:40-9:54).

Context: The video discusses the potential succession of Iran's Supreme Leader following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, focusing on his son, Mojtaba Khamenei. The analysis draws parallels to Donald Trump's past comments suggesting Iran should be managed like Venezuela and explores how Mojtaba's perceived hardline leanings and lack of public profile might impact future relations with the US and Israel, especially amidst the current war context.

Detailed Analysis

The discussion centers on the likely succession of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran's next Supreme Leader, contrasting his potential tenure with the relatively more accommodating stance of his deceased father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, particularly regarding the US and Israel. The speaker notes that Donald Trump once explicitly stated his desire to see Iran governed by someone more amenable to American interests, citing a hypothetical scenario involving Venezuela. Mojtaba Khamenei, at 55, is described as a mid-ranking cleric who has maintained a low public profile, never holding executive office or making significant public speeches, unlike his father who wrote about US interference in the 1979 revolution. The expert, Eskandar Sadeghi-Boroujerdi, points out that Mojtaba is closely connected to the IRGC and the security apparatus, suggesting he will likely adopt a hardline approach, which is further reinforced by the ongoing war environment. This contrasts with the possibility of a more moderate successor who might have been favored by external powers. The speaker further details that Mojtaba's influence within the Assembly of Experts (which selects the leader) and his family's legacy mean he is positioned to continue the revolutionary principles, making him less likely to appease the US or Israel. The expert concludes that the current geopolitical climate makes a hardline successor more probable, which will likely result in continued antagonism toward the US and Israel, rather than the accommodation Trump might have hoped for.