# Real Estate Has Finally “Bottomed,” Says Top Investing Expert Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_JtOTodyiBc Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/_JtOTodyiBc Generated: 2025-12-19T14:35:50.919+00:00 --- ## Quick Overview The top investing expert, Ben Miller, suggests that while real estate has not fundamentally bottomed out yet due to lagging wage growth and high asset prices, the widespread adoption of AI is likely to cause a deflationary environment by suppressing wage growth and potentially leading to a significant downturn in housing affordability in 2026. **Key Points:** - Ben Miller, CEO of Fundrise, believes the real estate market has not yet bottomed, citing a lag in wage growth compared to asset price increases. - Miller predicts that AI will act as a deflationary force by suppressing wage growth, potentially leading to a scenario where most people make less money. - The impact of AI is expected to be most keenly felt in white-collar, administrative, and analytical jobs, with estimates suggesting 20-50% of these roles could be replaced or significantly altered. - In the housing market, this AI-driven deflation could cause housing affordability to worsen for the average American, even if overall asset prices remain high or increase. - Miller suggests that the greatest risk in the near term is not inflation but rather a 'super deflation' if AI adoption rapidly depresses wages. - He recommends investors focus on assets that benefit from wealth creation and productivity gains, such as high-end real estate in economic hubs like San Francisco and New York, rather than struggling middle-class housing markets. - Fundrise is actively using its proprietary AI to analyze deals and market trends faster than traditional methods, which he believes will become increasingly valuable. ![Screenshot at 00:12: The opening title card graphic for the "Real Estate with Dave Meyer" podcast, featuring an aerial view of suburban homes and upward trending arrows, sets the stage for a discussion on future real estate market predictions.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/_JtOTodyiBc/00-00-12.png) **Context:** This video features an interview between podcast host Dave Meyer and guest Ben Miller, the CEO of Fundrise and a prominent voice in real estate technology and finance. The discussion centers on Miller's economic predictions for 2026, focusing heavily on the disruptive impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on the job market, inflation, wage growth, and the subsequent effects on the real estate investment landscape. ## Detailed Analysis Ben Miller, CEO of Fundrise, argues that while the real estate market has not fully bottomed, the primary economic risk going forward is deflation, driven by AI adoption, rather than sustained inflation. He notes that asset prices have remained high while wage growth has lagged, creating affordability issues. Miller suggests that AI is a deflationary technology because it will suppress wage growth by replacing or drastically altering the work of white-collar and analytical professionals—estimating that 20% to 50% of these tasks could be automated. This outcome would exacerbate the affordability crisis, particularly for middle-class housing, where rent control and high leverage already strain the system. Conversely, he sees high-end real estate in major economic hubs like New York and San Francisco as potentially performing well because they cater to the wealth created by capital gains and AI-driven productivity, rather than relying on wage growth. Miller emphasizes that Fundrise uses its own AI product to analyze deals and market trends much faster than traditional methods, making it an essential tool for investing in this new environment. He concludes that while the immediate future is uncertain, AI's productivity gains will likely lead to a deflationary environment impacting wages and making certain assets more valuable than others. ### Introduction and Market State - Dave Meyer introduces Ben Miller, Head of Real Estate Investing at BiggerPockets, to discuss 2026 economic predictions - Miller confirms his previous prediction that real estate has bottomed, but notes the market is still facing uncertainty due to inflation and economic factors. ### The Role of AI in the Economy - Miller identifies AI as a key driver of future change, arguing it will be deflationary, not inflationary, by suppressing wages - He estimates 20-50% of knowledge worker tasks (customer service, copywriting, analysis) could be replaced by AI like GPT-6. ### Impact on Wages and Affordability - Miller predicts that widespread AI adoption will lead to lower wage growth, potentially causing a societal shift where more Americans make less money - He notes that while asset prices might not fall, affordability will suffer because wages won't keep pace. ### Investment Strategy in the AI Era - Miller recommends investors focus on assets that benefit from capital gains and productivity, like high-end real estate in major hubs (SF, NY) - He contrasts this with middle-class housing, which is overly reliant on wage growth. ### Fundrise's AI Application - Miller details how Fundrise uses its proprietary AI tool to analyze real estate data (comps, migration patterns, ARVs) much faster than traditional methods, making it a valuable tool for current investing challenges. ### Conclusion - The discussion ends with an agreement that while the economic transition might be 'ugly,' the analytical power of AI provides tools to navigate the future better. ![Screenshot at 00:01: A high-tech visual representation of an AI chip processing data streams, symbolizing the core topic of AI's economic impact.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/_JtOTodyiBc/00-00-01.png) ![Screenshot at 00:17: Podcast host Dave Meyer introducing the guest, Ben Miller, with his credentials displayed on a graphic overlay.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/_JtOTodyiBc/00-00-17.png) ![Screenshot at 00:48: A list titled 'In This Episode' outlining the six key topics to be discussed, including 'Real Estate Has Bottomed' and 'AI Will Limit Inflation.'](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/_JtOTodyiBc/00-00-48.png) ![Screenshot at 02:24: Ben Miller using hand gestures while explaining the complex effects of AI on the economy, illustrating an abstract concept visually.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/_JtOTodyiBc/00-02-24.png) ![Screenshot at 10:48: A promotional banner for the 'Cash Flow Roadshow' event in Houston, Austin, and Dallas, showing both speakers engaged in conversation.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/_JtOTodyiBc/00-10-48.png)