房市至少还要再调整5年？房价短期不会回暖的主因是什么？当下市场中买家、卖家和开发商有何不同心态与表现？

Quick Overview

Real estate experts predict the market will continue adjusting for at least another five years, noting that the current slowdown in sales volume and cautious buyer behavior, especially concerning high-cost assets like high-rises, indicates prices will not rebound quickly, requiring both buyers and sellers to maintain patience.

Key Points: Market adjustment is expected to last at least five more years; prices will not see a short-term rebound. The primary reason for the slow rebound is the current cautious market sentiment, where buyers remain hesitant. Buyers seeking high-cost properties like high-rises are exhibiting high caution, often waiting for better conditions before purchasing. Sellers are displaying significant caution in pricing, often negotiating multiple times before agreeing to a price, indicating market uncertainty. Developers are also cautious, with many high-rise projects remaining unlaunched, showing restraint in bringing new supply to market. The market activity, especially sales volume, is significantly lower (only half) compared to the peak period of 2021-2022. The market cycle is not linear; it involves fluctuations (ups and downs) rather than a straight line, as illustrated by a presented market cycle chart.

Context: This video features a panel discussion, hosted by Albert Wang of 58home.ca, involving several real estate industry professionals, including Tony Ma (President of Dashun Real Estate) and Yang Hong (Well-known Real Estate Investor), analyzing the current state and future trajectory of the Canadian real estate market. The discussion centers on why the market slowdown persists, the differing mindsets of buyers, sellers, and developers, and the underlying economic factors driving these trends, such as interest rate changes.

Detailed Analysis

The experts agree that the real estate market is undergoing a prolonged adjustment period, potentially lasting another five years, with no immediate sign of price rebound. Tony Ma noted that despite having 20 years in the industry, the current market cycle, characterized by rising and falling prices, is unprecedented in its duration and nature. Yang Hong pointed to data showing sales volume is only half of the peak levels seen in 2021-2022 and that the market has entered a 'downward channel' after interest rates began falling. Vicky Huang observed that buyers, especially those targeting high-cost assets like high-rises, are extremely cautious, often waiting for better conditions or more favorable pricing before committing. Sellers are also cautious, frequently negotiating prices multiple times. Furthermore, developers are hesitant to launch new high-rise projects due to market uncertainty, resulting in very few new high-rise units coming to market. Yang Hong reinforced this by showing a chart depicting the market cycle as fluctuating rather than a straight line, urging participants to remain calm and wait for the right moment, as the market is clearly at a bottoming phase.