# 楼花Condo公寓市场触底了吗？ 多伦多地产局执行官CEO及业内专家如是说 （华语地产论坛主题讨论话题之一）

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPZbzQ1jAu8
Recap page: https://rapidrecap.app/video/ZPZbzQ1jAu8
Generated: 2025-11-10T14:43:42.856+00:00

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## Quick Overview

The consensus among the Chinese Real Estate Brokerage Alliance (CREBA) experts and TRREB CEO is that the pre-construction condo market has likely bottomed out, suggesting that now is a good time to purchase despite current market uncertainties like high interest rates and tariffs, as the market historically cycles and recovers quickly from downturns.

**Key Points:**
- GTHA New Condominium Apartment Sales hit their lowest point around Q3 1992, corresponding with the Toronto Blue Jays' first World Series win, and a similar low point occurred around Q3 2025 (implied recent low).
- ManLing Lau asserts that despite slow pre-construction condo sales currently, it is the best time to purchase for intelligent investors or end-users because developers are willing to negotiate on prices, deposit structures, and offer incentives like covering closing costs.
- Winson Chan confirmed the market has cycles, citing his own experience starting in real estate in 1992, noting that the early 90s market was tougher than the current one, and that they now command almost 10-20% of the market.
- John DiMichele (CEO, TRREB) highlighted that the current market is artificially slowed by tariffs, and historically, market transitions from slow to quick happen very fast, referencing similar patterns in 2008 and 2017.
- Selwyn Lo emphasized that the current problem is a lack of confidence among investors, not a lack of money, and that government actions like interest rate cuts and PST reductions help, but confidence must return.
- The panelists agreed that there is significant wealth transfer occurring (a trillion dollars) and that the market will ultimately see prices rise again as inventory cannot be built fast enough to meet future demand from aging Baby Boomers and Gen X.
- The low point in Q3 1992/93 saw detached home prices around $250,000, which is significantly lower than current price points, suggesting the current dip is less severe relative to historical context.

![Screenshot at 00:28: The bar chart illustrating GTHA New Condominium Apartment Sales across Q3 periods, clearly marking the historical low sales period \(Q3 89-92\) coinciding with the Blue Jays' World Series wins, setting the visual context for the discussion on market cycles.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/ZPZbzQ1jAu8/00-00-28.png)

**Context:** This video captures a panel discussion hosted by CREBA (Chinese Real Estate Brokerage Alliance) featuring industry experts, including Nicholas Yang (Host, Tridel), ManLing Lau (VP, Baker Real Estate), Winson Chan (VP, Tridel), Selwyn Lo (President, CREPSO), and John DiMichele (CEO, TRREB). The discussion centers on whether the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) pre-construction condominium market has hit its bottom following a period of slowdown, incorporating historical data comparisons and current economic factors like interest rates and tariffs.

## Detailed Analysis

The panel reached a consensus that the GTA pre-construction condo market has likely bottomed out, positioning the current moment as an opportune time for investment. Nicholas Yang initiated the discussion by referencing a chart showing condominium sales cycles, drawing a parallel between the low sales period coinciding with the Blue Jays' 1992 World Series win and a recent low point. ManLing Lau argued that despite current slowness, developers are highly motivated to negotiate aggressively on price, deposit structures, and offer incentives like covering closing costs, making it an excellent buying opportunity. Winson Chan reinforced the cyclical nature of real estate, noting that the current market is somewhat less challenging than the early 1990s when he started, and highlighted that the collective experience of the speakers spans over a century. John DiMichele pointed to external factors like tariffs causing an 'artificial down cycle,' suggesting the market correction will reverse quickly, as seen in 2008 and 2017. Selwyn Lo identified the core issue as a confidence deficit among investors rather than a lack of capital, noting that falling interest rates and PST reductions provide some relief. The speakers collectively pointed toward future demand driven by significant wealth transfer and demographic shifts (aging Baby Boomers and Gen X entering the market), ensuring that supply constraints will lead to another boom, likely after 2027.

### Market Cycle Analysis

- Historical GTHA condo sales bottomed near Q3 1992/93 (coinciding with Blue Jays' WS win)
- Current market dip is considered an artificial down cycle caused by tariffs and psychological uncertainty
- Market recovery from downturns historically happens very fast, similar to patterns seen in 2008 and 2017.

### Current Buyer Opportunity

- ManLing Lau stated now is the best time to buy as developers are willing to negotiate aggressively on price, deposit structures, and closing costs
- Winson Chan noted that developers are willing to negotiate even on multi-million dollar properties.

### Economic Factors & Confidence

- Selwyn Lo stated the issue is a lack of investor confidence, not a lack of money
- Interest rate cuts and PST reductions help, but confidence must return to drive activity.

### Future Outlook & Demand Drivers

- A massive wealth transfer (trillion dollars) is happening, coupled with aging Baby Boomers and Gen X entering the buying phase
- Supply constraints mean new homes cannot be built fast enough to meet this future demand, leading to an expected future boom.

### Historical Context (John DiMichele)

- The early 1990s market was significantly tougher than today
- In late 1996, he experienced three listings and three buyers in three weeks, all resulting in transactions, indicating rapid market acceleration.

### Developer Perspective (Winson Chan)

- Selling a $399,900 condo in the early 90s felt like a major achievement (turning a detached home into a condo)
- Today's market dynamics allow for more negotiation and incentives.

![Screenshot at 00:04: CREBA logo reveal during the opening title sequence, establishing the organizing body for the forum.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/ZPZbzQ1jAu8/00-00-04.png)
![Screenshot at 00:21: Nicholas Yang holding up a printed document displaying the 'GTHA New Condominium Apartment Sales, Q3 Periods' chart for the panel to reference.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/ZPZbzQ1jAu8/00-00-21.png)
![Screenshot at 00:29: Close-up of the sales chart, highlighting the lowest sales period \(Q3 89-92\) marked by Blue Jays World Series logos.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/ZPZbzQ1jAu8/00-00-29.png)
![Screenshot at 00:48: Nicholas Yang passing the question to ManLing Lau and Winson Chan regarding their VP roles at Baker Real Estate and Tridel.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/ZPZbzQ1jAu8/00-00-48.png)
![Screenshot at 01:12: ManLing Lau speaking, emphasizing that the current transition in real estate is an opportunity for smart investors.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/ZPZbzQ1jAu8/00-01-12.png)
![Screenshot at 02:21: ManLing Lau concluding her point by stating that current market conditions \(slow sales, interest rates, tariffs\) make it the perfect time to buy for those looking long-term.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/ZPZbzQ1jAu8/00-02-21.png)
![Screenshot at 04:43: Winson Chan explaining that the market has cycles, referencing his experience since 1994, and that the current situation is better than the early 90s.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/ZPZbzQ1jAu8/00-04-43.png)
![Screenshot at 06:35: Selwyn Lo commenting that he believes Tony \(another panelist\) may not know the answer as he started his career later in 1992.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/ZPZbzQ1jAu8/00-06-35.png)
![Screenshot at 09:54: John DiMichele emphasizing that the current market downturn is largely psychological and artificially induced by tariffs, and that transitions happen very fast.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/ZPZbzQ1jAu8/00-09-54.png)
![Screenshot at 11:17: Nicholas Yang concluding his segment by thanking John DiMichele and summarizing that the current market conditions present a clear opportunity.](https://ss.rapidrecap.app/screens/ZPZbzQ1jAu8/00-11-17.png)