2026: The Final Rigged Game? Peter St-Onge on the "Counterfeiting Cartel."

Quick Overview

Peter St-Onge argues that the current economic situation resembles 1997-1998 rather than 2000 for the AI boom, predicting continued growth unless capital expenditure collapses due to external factors like energy problems; furthermore, recessions historically stem from the Federal Reserve manipulating interest rates, not from specific sector bubbles popping, and Keynesian economics, which dominates modern macroeconomics, wrongly attributes business cycles to unpredictable

Key Points: St-Onge places the current state of the AI boom closer to 1997-1998 levels than the 2000 bubble pop, suggesting more growth remains unless capital expenditure suddenly collapses. Historically, economy-wide recessions result from the Fed manipulating interest rates to manage inflation, a pattern described as the "500-year-old story," rather than individual asset bubbles bursting, citing uranium or gold/silver as examples of non-recessionary busts. Keynesian economics, which St-Onge learned at McGill, is a "freak that was bolted on top" of classical/Austrian economics, pushing the narrative that government intervention improves outcomes, which he contrasts with Austrian economics focusing on supply, demand, and the role of interest rates. The Fed's practice of creating a "Fed put" by injecting massive liquidity (Quantitative Easing) after crises favors asset owners and the rich through Cantillon Effects, leading to the K-shaped economy. Tariffs, viewed as a sales tax, serve the strategic goals of forcing other countries to lower trade barriers and intentionally making production in places like Germany painful to restore US production, with most tariff costs currently absorbed by China. Regulations are identified as an immense economic burden; rolling back US regulations to 1950s levels could double the economy and cut prices by 20 to 30%, a factor far more significant than tariffs. The dollar's value as a store of savings is severely threatened by the Fed's irresponsible inflation (25%+ officially, 40% arguably) and the seizure of Russian central bank dollars under Biden, signaling that even central bank reserves are not safe from US action.